My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 1 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.
I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.
Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.
It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometimes it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.
Thursday
Kansas City @ New England
My Vegas Oddsmaker source said about 80% of the cash is on New England on Thursday night he likely will need the Chiefs here. New England opened -8 at his shop and was bet up to -9. He said the Total was bet from 49 down to 48 before settling at 48.5 as we go to press.
Sunday
Buffalo @ New England
My Sin City contact tells me he opened this at Buffalo-6 and was bet up to Buffalo-9 with sharp interest on the Bills early this week. He said sharps also bet the Under moving him down to 40.5 from a 42.5 opener.
Atlanta @ Chicago
My Vegas bookmaker source said it’s all public money on the Falcons on Sunday and that forced a move from -6 to -7. He said his money lopsided with almost 90% of the cash on Atlanta! He did note that sharps did come in at +7 and the Bears. Sharps also hit him a bit on the Under moving him from 50.5 to 49. He said he will definitely be rooting for the Bears come Sunday.
Jacksonville @ Houston
My Vegas contact tells me Houston opened +5.5 late this Spring and was bet as low as 4 with some interest on the Jaguars from +5.5 to +4.5. He did note when he went to 4 he saw opposing sharp interest come in on the Texans-4 and -4.5 which forced him back to 5 where all is quiet. He said the sharps strongest move is on the Under betting him down to 39.5 from a 42 opener.
Philadelphia @ Washington
My guy in Sin City tells me he opened this at Washington-2.5 back in late Spring and all Summer long the cash has come in on Philly moving them from a +2.5 dog to a -1 favorite. He said the big wagers on Philly here. He did note his total is up a half of tick from 48 to 48.5 but did say most of that is public action on the Over.
Arizona @ Detroit
Back in late Spring my Vegas guy said he opened Arizona as a +2.5 dog and they are now a -2 favorite for Sunday. He said about 2/3 of his money and ticket count are on Arizona so it’s a mix of sharp and public action causing the line move. He noted his total is down a half of tick from 49 to 48.5
Oakland @ Tennessee
This game opened a PK and he said the sharps like the Titans moving them from a PK to a -2.5 favorite as we go to press. He also noted his Total is down a point from 52 to 51 with a little interest on the Under.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
It’s been all sharp money on the Bengals here early on my West Coast guy tells me moving the Bengals from -1 to -3 as we go to press. His total is also down a half of tick from 43 to 42.5
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
My Vegas guy said the majority of his tickets written on this game are on the Steelers but he has more overall cash on the Browns due to sharp interest on Cleveland. He said Cleveland was bet down to +9.5 from a +10 opener. He said his total is down a half of tick from 47.5 to 47.
Indianapolis @ Los Angeles Rams
This game opened with the Colts as a 3.5 point favorite back in Spring but when Andrew Luck was announced out he took this off the board and opened the Rams as a 3 point favorite. He said they’ve been bet up to -3.5 actually and that’s mostly due to heavy public interest on the Rams. He said almost 4 out of 5 of his tickets are on the Rams here. He said he reopened this Total at 42.5 and has been bet down a half of tick to 42.
Seattle @ Green Bay
Nothing really to report all Summer on the side here but my Sin City contact tells me the sharps like the Over a bit betting him from 49.5 up to 51 as we go to press.
Carolina @ San Francisco
My Vegas source tells me it’s heavy public action (80% wager count) on the Panthers here moving them from -4 to -6 at one point. He did note at +6 is where the sharps came in on the 49’ers and knocked him back down to 5.5 on this number. He said he needed that big time to help balance things out a bit. Nothing to report on the Total.
New York Giants @ Dallas
He said sharps took interest on the Giants at +5.5 driving them down to as low as +3.5. He did note at 3.5 he saw some other sharp interest on the Cowboys forcing him to settle this number at 4. He did say a mixture of public and sharp money on the Under forced him to move 50 to 48.
Monday
New Orleans @ Minnesota
My Vegas source tells me it’s heavy public action on the Saints here (80%) wager count but the big money sharps like the Vikings betting him off the key number of -3 to -3.5. He said nothing to report on the total.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver
Sharp money likes the Chargers here and have bet them from +4.5 down to +3 as we go to press. He said his ticket count is about 50/50 but almost 3/4 of the money count is on the Chargers showing that sharps really like them in this spot on Monday. Nothing on the Total to report.
Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. It’s good to have a guy like me and the rest of the handicappers here at We Cover Spreads by your side come Sunday. The rest of the crew is ready to go this season in NFL! Hop on board with us this week as we look to exploit the marketplace.You can pick up my plays and the rest of the cappers right here on the site.
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