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The Dodgers come to Philly to play one of the hottest teams in baseball tonight. Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies and he’ll have his hands full this evening with the Dodgers offense that ranks #3 in the MLB in runs scored per 9 innings.
Nola has been inconsistent in recent form, in his last 6 starts he has a 5.88 ERA. He has a blend of some good starts and bad starts in this stretch but the Dodgers potent offense should give him some trouble tonight. He’s either giving you a solid outing or getting lit up lately. Even going back his last 10 games the solid starts as you dig deeper are vs weak offenses like the Yankees and Mets. In 6 of his last 10 starts he’s allowed four or more earned runs. If Nola gets off to a slow start the Phillies pen isn’t so great. We’ve watched them struggle at home too, with a 4.80 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this year. I like the way the Dodgers line up matches up with Nola and this pen tonight. Worth noting, in Aaron Nola’s average start this year the Total finishes at 10 runs per game.
Max Scherzer is having a great year but he’s facing a Philly team with confidence, they’re undefeated in August so far. During this 8 game winning streak the offense is clicking and they’re averaging 6.9 runs per game. Scherzer has shown some flaws in recent form. His last three starts he’s allowed 13 earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. He has a 6.80 ERA in this stretch allowing 14 hits and five of those were home runs. The Phillies offense is above average and the way they are playing right now could be a threat for Scherzer allowing some runs tonight.
I think this total is too low and we see some runs in Philadelphia pushing this Over.
Bet: 5*Phillies/Dodgers Over 8.5 -120
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