Super Bowl Hangover

Reaching the Super Bowl is the pinnacle of every football player and coaches professional life.  It’s a game that has produced heroes and goats, Hall of Famers and benchwarmers.  It also produces a hangover effect for both squads that can be used by NFL bettors to exploit.

The “Super Bowl Hangover” is especially important to NFL bettors during the first four weeks of the subsequent season.  Since 1997 in the first quarter of the regular season, the Super Bowl champion is 27-34-3 against the spread (ATS).  That is a covering percentage of 44.26%.  Not very impressive for having just won the Super Bowl!  An anomaly to that stat is the 2011 Green Bay Packers.  They were 3-1 ATS coming off their big game win over the Steelers.  Fairing even worse, is the Super Bowl loser.  During the same timeframe, the runner-up is a paltry 26-37-1 ATS; good for a cover rate of 41.27%.  Feeding right into that pitfall were the 2011 Steelers, who went 1-3 ATS.  However, the Pats went 3-1 ATS last season after losing to the G-Men.  If you combine both the winner and loser’s ATS records since 1997 for the first four weeks of the season, you’ll arrive at 53-71-4 (42.74%).  Those numbers show that a blind fade would be very profitable (57.26%).

To most, the above statistics probably come as a surprise, but they shouldn’t.  Consider this…teams that play in the Super Bowl are normally very popular teams.  Thus, they receive most of the attention in the media throughout the offseason.  Marbles and Mushes love to bet popular favorites.  Therefore, often times the Super Bowl participants’ lines are inflated in the beginning of the season due to market overreaction.  These teams are typically on prime time a lot early in the year as well.  The only thing the public likes more than favorites in the NFL, are “Prime Time Favorites”.

By knowing this betting angle, a NFL bettor can apply this in their methodology and take advantage of soft lines early in the year.  The key is to bet these games early in the week before all the other wiseguys pound away the value.  Look for strong spots to exploit this angle.

Good luck and keep cashing!

Twitter: @misterquinnbets

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