NFL Week 11 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 11 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

NY Jets @ Denver (+6.5, O/U 40.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at 4.5 saw early Jets support hitting as high as 6.5 before getting some resistance. At 6.5 he saw support come in on the Broncos and has adjusted back to 6 come press time. Sharp support on the under driving the opener of 42 down to 40.5. Here in NY at underground books this opened at 4 and head fake $$ got this high as 6.5 before seeing sharp support for Denver at 6.5. We’re down to 6 now with the total at 40.5 down a half of tick from the 41 opener.

Carolina @ Detroit (-7, O/U 47.5)
My Vegas source opened the Lions as a 6.5 point favorite and has moved the number up to 7 currently. The total has been bet down half a tick from 48 to 47.5. Opposite story here in New York. My local source opened Carolina up at 7.5 and saw support for the dog. We are currently at 7 with adjusted -120 vig to bet Carolina. The opener of 49 was bet down to 47.5.

Dallas @ Washington (+7.5, O/U 42)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 8 and he set he’s been bet down to 7.5 currently. He said usually the old school guys love divisional home dogs and he’s interested to see if they hop on Washington despite their poor play recently. The total has been bet down from 42 to 41.5 at his shop. Here in New York we saw an early move on the dog as the # opened at 9 and we’re bet down to Washington +7.5 with an adjusted -120 vig.

Buffalo @ Miami (-2.5, O/U 43)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at Miami -1.5 and has not reported much early movement by sharps. The total is dead at 43. Here in New York this opened at -2.5 and the total at 43. My local NYC bookie source said he heard that some big money bettors here in NY loved Miami and he shaded his number to keep them off.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-1, O/U 34.5)
My Vegas contact opened this at a PK where all is quiet. He said he doesn’t expect the recreational betting public to get involved this one. It should be one of the lower volume bet games come Sunday. He said he did take support on the Under from the 35.5 opener bet down to 34.5. Here in NY my local bookie source opened Jacksonville as a 1 point favorite and early Cleveland support has them as the 1 point favorite now. The total opened at 35.5 was bet up as high as 36.5 before being bet back down to 34.5.

Oakland @ Minnesota (+1, O/U 46)
Minnesota opened as a 1.5 point favorite at my Vegas contacts shop but after the Monday night performance we’ve seen them flip flop favorite roles with the Raiders who are now a 1 point favorite. The total has been bet up half a tick from the 44.5 opener to 45. Here in New York all is quiet as the Raiders opened and remain 1 point favorites. The total has no early movement at 45.5.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-7, O/U 40.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 7.5 and he said sharps took the bait with the hook and he has now adjusted to 7 where the love stopped. Total is quiet. According to my local NYC bookie source he opened this at 9 and saw sharp support for the dog driving this number all the way down to 7. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down a half of tick 40.5.

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-14, 48.5)
My Vegas contact said all is quiet at 14 and 48.5 on this game early at his shop. He expects the Packers as one of the more popular recreational bets on Sunday for sure. Here in New York at underground books the side is quiet at 14 but the total has been bet down from 49 to 48.

Seattle @ St.Louis (-1, O/U 39)
Another game my Vegas oddsmaker source said he expected to be low volume from recreational bettors. St. Louis opened a 2.5 point favorite and they are now a 2 point favorite. He saw Over support as the total was bet up to 39 from the 37.5 opener. Here in New York this opened with the Rams as a 3 point favorite and early support came in on the dog as St.Louis is now a 1 point favorite. The total was bet up from 38 to 39.

Arizona @ San Francisco (-9.5, O/U 40.5)
My Las Vegas contact said he still has a 10 up on the board and sharps have yet to grab the key # which tells him they don’t really love Arizona here. He said his total has been moved down half a tick from the 41.5 opener to 41. Here in New York this opened at 10 with local books before moving to 9.5. My local source saw Under support and was bet down to 41 from the opener of 42.

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-6.5, O/U 44)
My Vegas source said he had some sharp support on the Titans early at 6.5 and is now down to 6. He said the total was also bet down from 45 to 44 at his shop with a little Under love. This opened at 7 and we’ve been bet down to 6.5 here in New York at local shops with support for the dog. The total opened up at 46.5 and has been bet down to 44.

San Diego @ Chicago (-3.5, O/U 45)
My Vegas oddsmaker source said he has flip flopped between 3.5 and 4 all week with the side in this game. The total was bet down half a tick from 45.5 to 45 at his shop. Here in New York the side is at 3.5 with adjusted -115 vig to bet San Diego but sharps have not bit yet. My local bookie source says if they loved them that 3.5 would have been gone in a heartbeat. The total has moved between 45.5 and 45 all week.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-4.5, O/U 47)
My Vegas source told me he opened the Giants-3.5. He took it off the board for a bit and re-opened at 4 and took Giants support and is now at the dead # of 5. Here in New York this opened at 3.5 and we saw initial sharp move on the dog moving this down to 3. It came off the board for a bit and we seen it reopen at 3.5. Sharp support for the Giants moved this up to 4.5. My local bookie source says if Vick starts this # will move back down towards 3 and if he doesn’t he expects this # to move up towards 6. Total has been bet down from 48.5 to 47.

Kansas City @ New England (-14.5, O/U 46.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 14 and has been bet up to 15 early. Regardless of who it is most old school guys will never lay this much points. He said from the sharps that he’s spoke with they aren’t comfortable with Tyler Palko. Here in New York we are at 14.5 with adjusted -115 vig to bet the dog in this spot. The total is at 46.5.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one this year in the NFL as one of the hottest NFL handicappers in America. I have a 29-21-1 (58%) record this year with 22.7* units of profit netted! It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Sunday and Monday night as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030

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