NFL Smart Money Report: 2011 Win Totals Update

The first edition of the weekly NFL Smart Money Report for 2011 and boy it feels great to say that! Now that the lockout ended and the Season Win Totals were posted and we can dive right into the action. Want to know what the sharps aka professional bettors thought of the 2011 NFL Season Win Totals posted last week and how they bet them?

I consider myself privileged to have the contacts that I have in this industry and I have no problem passing along the information I obtain from these contacts to you. For those of you that aren’t familiar I breakdown where the smart money, sharp money, wiseguy dough, whatever you want to call it is going every week on NFL games in my blog.

I posted a blog last week containing every single NFL season win total. Since that blog there’s been some major moves in the free agent marketplace and sharps have reacted to those moves. I’ve reached out to my Vegas oddsmaker contact, other sharp bettors I know across the globe, and a couple of local bookies here in the NYC metro area to get their input. I took my notes and compiled it all together and bam this is your 2011 NFL Season Win Total Smart Money Report.

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: A lot of sharps including myself are hearing good things out of Cowboys camp with Jason Garrett. They opened up at 9 and have been bet up to 9.5 at most shops with the vig on the under in the -150 range.

Philadelphia Eagles: Dream team talks, comparisons to the Miami Heat, Joe public’s team of 2011 probably. Every sharp I spoke with expects the Eagles to be overvalued all year. Their  aggressive approach to the free agency market has forced books to move the opener of 10 wins up to 10.5 paying -120 vig on the over.

New York Giants: The under is a popular play among sharps I spoke with and a local bookie source of mine here in New York. This opened at 9.5 -115 on the under and now you’re paying around -150 to bet the under. Like I said New York guys feel this is a 8-8 team at best from what I’m hearing.

Washington Redskins: Heavy steam coming down on the under here with a mess behind center in Washington. It opened at 6.5 wins paying -120 vig on the over and now we’re seeing 6.5 -200 almost.  Even 6’s starting to pop up. Every sharp I spoke with said this number should be around 5.5 wins.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers: Defending champs are teams sharps usually bet against the following year. Same thing this season. They opened at 11.5 with a -110 vig. Now you’re paying -140 to bet the under at 11.5 wins the Packers.

Chicago Bears: This opened at 9.5 wins and was one of the biggest moves my Vegas oddsmaker contact said. Sharps hit the under hard on the Bears. Now you’re looking at 8.5 wins with a vig of -115 on the over.

Detroit Lions: Sharps love the Lions. Every single source from Vegas to NY confirmed this one. This is a team big money guys are heavy on this year. It opened at 7.5 with -120 vig on the under. Now we’re seeing 7.5 with -120 vig on the over and even 8’s at some shops.

Minnesota Vikings: A lot of support for the Vikings across the board. Sharps still like McNabb and showed that support. It opened at 6.5 with -120 vig on the over. Now we’re seeing -150 vig on the over and even 8’s at some shops.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: This opened at 10.5 with -115 on the Under. Not much movement here because sharps feel this number is about right from the guys I’ve spoke with. My oddsmaker contact in Vegas likes the Falcons to win the division though this year and thinks they finish around 11 wins.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints opened with -125 vig betting the under at 10 wins. It’s virtually stayed the same at all shops. Not much action from sharps on the win total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sharps are not respecting Tampa Bay. Everyone of them I spoke with say the Bucs had a soft schedule last year and felt the 8.5 opener was too high. They hit the under  now we see 8 around the board at all shops.

Carolina Panthers: No movement here either with an opener of 4.5 wins. The Panthers were a team sharps didn’t bet on much last year and it looks to be the same this year.

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks keep getting bet under by wiseguys. They opened at 7 with an under vig of -120. Now we’re seeing them at 6.5 wins with under vigs as high as -150.

St.Louis Rams: This is a team I personally have pegged as a sleeper and was one I personally bet over. They opened at 7 wins with -120 vig on the over. Other wiseguys agreed with me and have bet it up to 7.5 across the board with vig on the under now.

San Francisco 49’ers: First year coaches straight out of college is a tactic sharps like to go against. They Niners opened at 8 wins with -120 vig on the over. They’ve been bet down to 7.5 wins with -130 vig on the over.

Arizona Cardinals: The Kolb move was a big one. Everyone confirmed this one from Vegas to NY. The Cards opened at 6 with -120 vig on the over. 6.5 is the common number now with some 7’s popping up. Lots of respect for Kolb and the supporting cast this year to overachieve against that opening number.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills: The Bills opened at 5 wins with -130 vig on the over. Sharps felt that number was short and we’ve watched the Bills get bet up to 5.5 now across the board.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins opened up at 8 wins with -115 vig on the over. Sharps see the moves the Jets and Patriots have been making and quickly bet Miami down. We’re now seeing 7.5 with -120 vig toward the under.

New England Patriots: The Patriots are very active and both local bookies here in NY and Vegas oddsmakers have the Pats as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. They opened up at 11.5 wins with -120 vig on the under. We’re now seeing -120 vig on the over as sharp support has come in for New England’s recent moves.

New York Jets: The Jets opened up at 10 wins with -120 vig toward the under. The recent moves by the Patriots and lack of respect for Sanchez from sharps on both coasts bet the Jets down to 9.5 across the board with -130 vig on the over.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers opened at 11 wins with -120 vig on the under. They’ve been bet down by wiseguys to 10.5 wins with -115 vig on the over.

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens opened up at 11 wins by oddsmakers and have been bet down to 10.5 wins by sharps as well. Wiseguys know this is a competitive division and felt both Baltimore and Pittsburgh were a little overpriced heading into 2011.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals opened at 7.5 with -120 vig on the over. Wiseguy money has come in hard against the Bengals so far. They’ve been bet down to 5.5 with -135 vig on the over. This was one of the biggest wiseguy moves according to my Vegas oddsmaker contact as sharps expect a down year in Cincy.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns opened at 6.5 wins for 2011 and we haven’t seen sharps voice any opinion as they still sit at the current number.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts opened at 10 wins with -120 vig on the under. Wiseguys are starting to feel the Colts are more of a “yesterday” team and I expect sharp money to come against one of Joe Public’s favorite teams this season. They’ve been bet down to 9.5 with -125 vig on the over.

Houston Texans: The Texans opened at 8 wins with -115 vig on the over and have been bet up by wiseguys to 8.5 with vig on the under at most sharp shops. Sharps are expecting the Texans to compete closely with the Colts this year to win the South.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags opened up at 6 wins this year as oddsmakers expected another losing season in Jacksonville. Sharps felt the number was opened low and bet them up to 6.5 wins now with heavy vig on the under.

Tennessee Titans: The Titans opened at 6.5 wins with -115 vig on the over. Not much action here as the Titans are still at the same number. Oddsmakers told me they expected more action on Tennessee with the recent acquisition of Hassleback but saw nothing as of yet.

AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs opened at 8 wins with -120 vig on the under. Sharps felt the Chiefs are a sub .500 team this year. A lot of guys don’t respect the new offensive coordinator change. They’ve been bet down to 7.5 wins across the board.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos opened at 6 wins and from the looks of it there is a lack of respect for Tebow from wiseguys. The Broncos have been bet down to 5.5 wins with -125 vig on the over

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders opened up at 7 wins for 2011. I contacted my Vegas oddsmaker first about this one because I know he always says due to the proximity to California the Raiders are always a public bet in Vegas. He said wiseguy money has come in on the under as the Raiders are now at 6.5 wins with heavy vig on the over.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers opened up at 10 wins as the expected winners of the AFC West once again. Sharps I spoke with don’t feel you should pencil in the Chargers just yet as the divisional winners. They’ve actually been bet down to 9.5 wins with -135 vig on the over.

Football season is in full swing and I can’t wait to make some money on the gridiron! I’d love to have all of you join me as I look to do heavy damage in the NFL this year as I go for my seventh profitable season in the last 9 years. My Early Bird Package is available to carry you through Super Bowl now at a low discounted price. I utilize these same contacts week in and week out to give my clients and I a huge edge over the betting marketplace in the NFL. Get on board with me this season right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

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