NBA Western Conference Betting Value Report

In this blog we’re going to take some time out to preview the second half of the NBA season talking the Western Conference teams from a betting perspective. I’ll beakdown which teams you should look to back and which teams you should to fade in the second half of the NBA season. We’ll go through each team one by one reviewing how they did the first half and I’ll give you my opinion of what their betting stock is for the second half of the NBA season.

Northwest
Thunder

The Thunder are a public team like Miami but not to the same extent. Remember the Thunder still do play in a small market and I think there is value in a sense betting them. Oddsmakers have done a better job of regulating their numbers compared to a team like the Bulls who have scorched the books so a second half adjustment will not be as big as it is for Chicago. I’ll call for Oklahoma City to finish right about where the ATS record stands right now. They are 19-15 ATS (56%) through the All-Star Break and I think they continue to hover around that 55% mark for the second half of the season.
Betting Stock: Stable

Trailblazers
Portland is pretty easy to read. As always they are very tough at home 12-5 ATS. No secret the Trailblazers are going to make you money on their home court. On the highway they are not so good. I’m never one to like to lay chalk on favorites but the Blazers are 12-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. I don’t know how much books will readjust in the second half in their home games since they are not a huge public team. I’d say try to steer clear of them on the road in the second half. You can make money betting them Under in the when it comes to totals. The under is 10-6 in their road contests. Look to ride them at home until you see an oddsmakers adjustment.
Betting Stock: Stable

Denver
Oddsmakers have done some heavy adjustment in the first half of the season on the Nuggets home court edge. The Nuggets at home is always a favorite for bettors and oddsamkers managed to keep the Nuggets below .500 at 7-10 ATS at home so far. The Nuggets struggled with injuries down the stretch of the first half of the season and it reflected in their W/L record. I like Denver in the second half of the season and think their betting stock rises only if they can get healthy and remain that way. Normally a bad road team the Nuggets are a pristine 13-5 ATS on the highway this year. A couple of other angles are the under is 11-6 in their home games and the over is 12-6 in their away games.
Betting Stock:Stable

Timberwolves
I like everything abut this Minnesota team and what they have to offer. A young rising point guard to go with maybe the best power forward in basketball and a slew of young talented ballers. Avoid laying the chalk with them at home but when they are an underdog at home vs the elite teams in the league they are 6-2 ATS. On the road they are making you money covering 10 of 14 games. Their betting stock rises because I think the talent and coaching is here for the T’Wolves right now to take them serious. Ride them as home dogs and in away games and you should be fine.
Betting Stock: Rising

Jazz
Utah still has a tough home court edge and still struggles on the road. The Under is a good bet in their road contests 9-4-1. They look sloppy on the road and definitely don’t shoot as well away from their building. I don’t have much of an opinion on Utah for the second half of the season. They have a shot to move up in the standings and make a run but I don’t think the talent level is there. I don’t see much changing in there ATS record second half of the season. I think they finish about .500 vs the spread. You get the best your buck with them at home.
Betting Stock: Stable

Pacific
Clippers

Are they the best team in Los Angeles? Maybe, they are definitely making a case for it. One thing I will say is the exposure from the media will definitely hurt their betting stock.
Lack of depth will catch up with this team come playoff time for sure. Great starting five but the below average bench will be exposed come crunch time. One thing I noticed about the team is they don’t always seem to give 100%. They look lazy at times to me. Something about this team I’m not sold on to say they are a true contender. They are a solid 10-6 ATS at home but I’ll call their betting stock to drop in the second half as the media focuses on them in one of the biggest markets in the country draining betting value.
Betting Stock: Falling

Lakers
The Lakers are a lot like the Miami Heat. Ask any oddsmaker and they will tell you that you will be paying a tax of 1 or 2 points adjusted into the line to bet on the Lakers. Despite the Clippers being the best team in town it still doesn’t matter because as long as the Lakers are decent you will be paying a tax on them. One of the main reasons is the Lakers proximity to Las Vegas and the amount of recreational bettors in the sports book looking to bet on their team. The Lakers are 11-5 at home vs the spread and 5-13 vs the spread on the road. So much depends on if the Lakers make a second half move for Dwight Howard. I’m going to say the Lakers make a run down the stretch. Remember they had to adjust to a new coach and slight adjustments to the rotation which showed the first half of the season. I think they have a good second half of the season but it’s hard for me to say their betting stock is on the rise since they are one of the most taxed teams in the league so we’ll call it stable.
Betting Stock:Stable

Warriors
If you listened to my podcast or read my tweets before the season started I said the Warriors were my sleeper team in the Western Conference to sneak into the playoffs as the #8 seed. They finished 15-15 ATS in the first half of the season. I like them in the second half of the season quite a bit. I think they will have a winning ATS record in the second half of the season. They have some key pieces to the puzzle but they just need Curry to stay healthy. I give Mark Jackson credit for how he has them playing given the fact we are on a compressed schedule and lack of practice time. I still think the Warriors are a sleeper and dangerous second half team. The Over is 9-3 in their road games.
Betting Stock: Rising

Suns
The Suns are a horrible 14-20 ATS this season. With such a bad first half there is only one way to go and that’s up. So I think there is some betting value with the Suns in the second half of the season if we look at it from that angle.They have ATS records down there with Charlotte and Washington but have much more talent than both teams. They are a terrible favorite so avoid laying points with them either at home are on the road. I think if you pick your spots with them as a dog you can make money in the second half. After such a terrible first half performance that’s going to leave some nice value with some inflated dog numbers. The Under is 13-5 in their away games.
Betting Stock: Rising

Kings
This team plays no defense but if they played just a little defense they would be a sleeper. I think there is a lot of young talent here that just doesn’t know how to play together yet. They finished 17-16 ATS for the first half of the season hovering above .500. They closed off the first half of the season covering 10 of their last 13 games despite losing most of them straight up. That tells me one thing, this team is improving to the point where they are at least competing in games. Remember they started the season getting blown out the water in road games. They have made strides. I think the trend continues as these young guys continue to gain confidence in one another and catch inflated numbers. The Under is 14-7 in their road games
Betting Stock: Rising

Southwest
Spurs

Everyone I know including myself said the Spurs age would hurt them in the compacted schedule. That couldn’t be further from the truth, at least through the first half of the season. They went on a tear to close out the first half of the season that went partly unnoticed by the NBA media due to Linsanity. They are 10-4 ATS at home and started to heat up on the road going 6-2-1 ATS on their long road trip to close out the first half of the season. I like everything this team has to offer but I’m going to say I think that recent run may not have caught the average bettors attention but it sure did catch oddsmakers attention. I think we see some adjusted numbers against them in second half of the season killing some value. I also am curious to see if the compacted schedule eventually catches up to them late in the second half of the season. The under was 10-4 in their home games and the Over was 14-6 in their away games.
Betting Stock: Falling

Mavericks
I’m shocked that the defending Champs went 20-14 ATS in the first half of the season. Usually defending champions receive an extra tax the following season killing the value. But this Mavericks team is a little different. They aren’t a public team this year since the national media completely wrote them off and said their age would catch up with them. I don’t think oddsmakers want to see any team beating them at a 60% clip so I will say the betting value drops a bit in the second half and I think their numbers regress slightly. But I’m not ready to count this team out at all and will be carefully picking spots to back them despite falling stock.
Betting Stock: Falling

Rockets
I love, love, love this Rockets team. They are so under the radar right now and have been such a money maker in the first half. They are hitting 60% ATS and that’s largely because they are dominating teams at home with a 13-5 ATS record on their home floor. I’m not a big fan of laying chalk a lot but this is a team I’ve found myself laying chalk with quite a bit and I’m confident everytime I do. The lines against them have been cheap in my opinion. Vegas doesn’t want any team hitting 60% against them but this team is very far from a public team. I think the value remains to an extent in the second half and I will look to keep riding them until the betting public catches on.
Betting Stock: Stable

Grizzlies
Memphis has managed to stay in the hunt without Zach Randolph which is impressive. Despite a winning straight up record they have been losers against the spread this year.
This is a team sharps used to love to back as underdogs but they have broken hearts this year going 5-10 ATS as underdogs. When Randolph comes back I would have to think their betting stock rises in the second half because he is a big boost that they are lacking on the offensive end right now. I don’t see them making any drastic fluctuations ATS in the second half though.
Betting Stock: Stable

Hornets
They only won 8 games straight up but won double that (16) against the spread. That speaks a lot and this is one of the cellar dwellers that I think has big value in the second half. They are rock solid 11-5 ATS on the highway this year as lines continue to be inflated against them. They have been dealing with injury issues all year but have showed grit by at least trying to stay competitive. I like the Hornets against the spread chances in the second half as they stay undervalued and sharp bettors pick their spots making money with them.
Betting Stock: Rising

The first half of the NBA season flew by but it’s no secret that the second half of the season is where I’ve done most of my damage over the years especially the Playoffs where two years in a row combined we won over 69% of our NBA playoffs bets and that’s not a typo. If you need to get on board with an proven and respected advisor in the industry for the second half of the season look no further as I have daily, weekly, monthly, and season packages in the NBA to have you covered. right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

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