NBA Playoffs Game 3 Round 1 Saturday Previews

One thing over the years I have focused on is how the lines switched from Game 2 to Game 3 during the NBA Playoffs. Normally under regular conditions during a NBA playoff series we will see oddsmakers make an 8 point swing from Game 2 to Game 3 as venues change. Anything over or above the normal 8 point swing is where you can find some serious value as oddsmakers either over or under adjust that number due to a variety of reasons. I’ll go through the Game 2 to Game 3 point spread fluctuations in every series. You can use these to gauge value as series switch venues in upcoming Game 5, Game 6, and Game 7 in all the series. You also can use this same technique in Game 2 to Game 3 of upcoming Rounds. Remember oddsmakers asses 3 to 4 points for home court advantage.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Clippers
Game 2: Clippers+6
Game 3: Clippers-3.5

With the normal 8 point swing from Game 2 in Memphis to Game 3 in Memphis the line in Game 3 should have opened up Clippers-2. It opened Clippers-3.5 which leaves 1.5 points of value on the table. As we go to press with this article sharps have started to hit the Grizzlies pretty hard and this line is down to 3 and 2.5 pretty much everywhere scooping up the value which once was there. Sharps have been very high on this Memphis team coming into the playoffs as many I’ve spoken too felt the Grizzlies were poised to make a deep run in the Western Conference. Are sharps on the right side by hitting Memphis early thinking this line opened too high? Or are the Clippers not being given the respect from the professional bettors across the country as the Clippers head home to play Game 3 in front of their home crowd in a bounce back off a loss situation?

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz
Game 2: Spurs-11.5
Game 3: Spurs-5.5

With the normal 8 point swing from Game 2 in San Antonio to Game 3 in Utah the line Game 3 should have opened Spurs-3.5. San Antonio absolutely dominated the Jazz in Game 2 in what was a game that seemed the Jazz through in the towel from the beginning of the game. The Spurs seem to be firing on all cylinders right now and are as dangerous team as any team in the league. A lot of sharps I know said the game they were eyeing before this series started is Game 3 in Utah in front of a very amped up crowd. There are 2 points of value sitting on the table and as the betting public continues to bet the Spurs heavy this line may climb leaving more value on the table. Are the Jazz in a great spot to catch the Spurs and the betting public in for a shocker and grab a win in Game 3? Or is home court edge not enough to offset the talent this Spurs team has and the way they are playing right now?

I always said in order to win in this business sometimes you have to think like the guy on the side of the counter setting the lines. Trying to figure how and why are they setting the lines a certain way can help you gain an edge over the rest of the betting public. I’ve been using these tactics to destroy the books in the NBA Playoffs in my career. You can get the rest of my NBA Playoffs picks right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

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