NBA Eastern Conference Betting Value Report

In this blog we’re going to take some time out to preview the second half of the NBA season talking the Eastern Conference teams from a betting perspective. I’ll beakdown which teams you should look to back and which teams you should to fade in the second half of the NBA season. We’ll go through each team one by one reviewing how they did the first half and I’ll give you my opinion of what their betting stock is for the second half of the NBA season. In the coming days I’ll have the Western Conference version.

Atlantic Division
76’ers
The Sixers closed out the first half of the season struggling mightily. This team lacks a superstar to make a deep run in the playoffs I think. They have plenty of good role players but if they were to snatch up a player of Dwight Howard’s skill level this team would be one dangerous club. I love defense and defense covers spreads. Statistically the Sixers rank #1 in scoring PPG, #4 in defensive FG%, and #5 in defensive 3 point %. One thing is clear about Philly they are profitable at home (12-7 ATS) but still are negative in road games for bettors. The lack of a superstar player to step up night in and night out hurts and think it may catch up to them. I don’t see any major changes as as far as betting forecast goes. As long as they play defense they should be able to cash tickets and put similar ATS numbers as they did in the first half or maybe a little better.
Betting Stock: Stable

Knicks
The media hype surrounding Linsanity is incredible. I think that works against them as far betting investment stock. I do feel their straight up stock is rising because I think they can win the Atlantic Division. We still have to see if Carmello Anthony can mesh with Jeremy Lyn and take this team to the next level. The talent is here and the defense is improving which is key. In the month of February only the Bulls and Nets eclipsed 100 points on the Knicks. The Garden atmosphere is incredible and I think the Knicks are a threat cashing tickets at home when a big name opponent comes to town but be careful when the Knicks tend to play down to lesser opponents at times. I like the Knicks against the spread vs the upper echelon of the league but I think overall the lines will be stacked against them in the 2nd half vs the middle and lower tier teams in the league hurting their stock overall.
Betting Stock: Dropping .

Celtics
The Celtics have a losing straight up and ATS record to close out the first half of the season. The Big 3 are aging and the depth off the bench is very weak. Statistically they play great defense like the 76’ers which you would think would help them. Unlike the Sixers this is a “public favorite” to bet on team. As long as the betting public keeps backing them I think this team is overvalued. I especially don’t like Boston vs the elite teams in the league. I’ll go as far a saying I don’t like Boston vs the top half of the league. Their age is showing and the stock is falling. Celtics are fade material here on out.
Betting Stock: Dropping

Raptors
The Raptors have been outpeforming the #s oddsmakers assign them all year. I love the fact they are only 10-23 straight up but 18-14 ATS. That speaks volumes about this team being underpriced by oddsmakers. I think teams don’t get motivated to play this team whether visiting Toronto or when the Raptors come to their building. I think it’s treated as close to a night off for some of the better teams in the league when facing them. Toronto is a team in Canada that not many United States bettors even follow. This is the team in the league with the least amount of exposure as far as media leaving sharp bettors plenty of value. I think the Raptors are a money maker due to all of the things I mentioned above.
Betting Stock: Rising

Nets
The Nets have only 3 straight up home wins and 7 straight up road wins on the season. With them moving to Brooklyn next year their building is empty every night giving them no home court edge at all. We know oddsmakers assign a few points for home court edge into the line but this a team that has no true home court edge since no fans are in the building. The recipe to make money with the Nets is stay away from them in their home games and ride them in road games. With Brooks Lopez back in the middle for the second half of the season I think it adds some nice value. I’ll go ahead and say the Nets stock is rising in the second half as a team to ride in certain spots.
Betting Stock: Rising

Central Division
Bulls

The Bulls are a team that is winning games and covering point spreads. There is no two ways around it. The impressive part is they were pretty banged up the first half of the season. Oddsmakers know the Bulls are a public team and they lost money on them the first half of the season. I think we’ll start to a heavier tax into the Bulls lines in the second half of the season inflating numbers against them. They covered 60% of their bets the first half of the season. Trust me Vegas doesn’t want that. If you notice the Bulls did most of their damage on the road against the spread (13-7 ATS) in the first half. I think books look to limit their success in the second half of the season. I want to make it clear overall I love this team and think the Bulls are very capable of beating the Heat and taking the East this year.
Betting stock: Dropping

Pacers
If you listened to my podcast before the season started you remember I said the Pacers were my sleeper team out of the Eastern Conference this year. They lived up to the hype with their straight up record but haven’t been making bettors money at the window. They went on a stretch where they failed to cover 8 games in a row which hurt their ATS record. I’m going out on a limb and think with half the season under their belt this Pacers team comes out swinging in the second half. I think the Pacers closed out strong by winning their final four games of the first half of the season. This going to be a team I look to make money with down the stretch. The David West addition was huge and they are 1 year mature from the playoff run last year. Watch out for the Pacers in the second half against the spread.
Betting Stock: Rising

Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were like the Raptors at one point by sneaking under the radar cashing tickets with a losing straight up record. It seems as if the #’s started to catch up with the Cavaliers and they finished 16-15 ATS for the first half of the season. Don’t lay points with this team. They are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite vs being 6-3 ATS as a home underdog. Even in their road games the lines tend to be a little inflated against them and they managed to finish 8-6 ATS. I’ll call their betting stock stable because I don’t foresee any tremendous swing in either direction as far as betting value. Look to ride them as home dogs and you’re always getting a decent number with them on the road as puppies.
Betting Stock: Stable

Bucks
They finished a terrible 13-20 ATS in the first half of the season. Normally I would say books don’t want to keep losing with a team that performed so poorly vs the number in the first half of the season and will start to inflate the line in their favor for the second half so bettors can’t fade them so easily. I don’t think that will even help. This team plays terrible fundamental defense. The rumors that Brandon Jennings isn’t playing 100% hurts too. I question the teams chemistry and coaching. I think things continue in a downward spiral in the second half of the season for Milwaukee and the betting stock continues to drop if that’s imaginable.
Betting Stock: Dropping

Pistons
The Pistons have 11 wins straight up but five more ATS with 16. I like that a lot. The Pistons don’t play good on the road and that’s no secret. At home they still give a solid effort and are a profitable investment. I think the Pistons have a chance to improve on their ATS record in the second half. Being a cellar dweller that the betting public likes to fade I think there is value with the Pistons in the second half. On the road vs the top half of the league I’d stay away but against the bottom half of the league on the road they are worth a shot. At home I’d always circle them and break down the game individually. Overall I think there is money to made with them in the second half. They are my favorite of all the last place teams in the East as far as betting value in the second half.
Betting Stock: Rising

Southern
Heat

The Heat are starting to look scary good. But remember this is the heaviest taxed team in the league right now. To bet on the Heat you are usually paying a 1 or 2 point tax minimum higher than what the line really should be. That works in the books advantage, not yours. They went 26-7 straight up but came nowhere close to those numbers vs the spread. They closed out the first half of the season on a tear and I think oddsmakers definitely should be concerned. The way they were playing it seemed nobody could keep it within the number vs them. If they continue to play like that look for some crazy lines involving them as oddsmakers try to thwart off the betting public.It’s Miami and they are heating up so I’d say the stock betting on them will drop as oddsmakers look to keep them hovering right around .500 against the number.
Betting Stock: Dropping

Magic
Does Dwight Howard stay or go? They would be dumb to keep him and watch him walk in the offseason only to get nothing in return. This is a hard team to project because you don’t know if he is staying or going. Let’s assume he stays in Orlando. The Magic finished the first of the season just like the Bulls covering 60% of their games. They are not as “public” of a team as Chicago. But they do receive just enough public attention for books to make an adjustment in the second half of the season. If Howard stays I would have to think books adjust the numbers involving their games and stock drops. If he gets traded depending what they get in return the value may stick around with them.
Betting Stock: Dropping

Hawks
With Al Horford out for so long it really puts a damper on the Hawks 2nd half goals for me. One thing I don’t think changes is they should continue to cash tickets Under for total bettors. I think the Hawks continue to beat up on the lower third of the league but when they play the big boys they are outclassed and it shows. I don’t think things look too bright for Atlanta in the second half of the season overall. I see them continuing their downfall and I’d look for their stock to continue to drop in the second half of the season.
Betting Stock: Dropping

Wizards
This team has been dreadful against the spread in the first half. I think the second half of the season oddsmakers make adjustments and you start to see even higher lines involving this team. The books try to adjust and get this team winning some games vs the spread so the betting public isn’t able to auto fade every day. I think if we’re talking sheer value of betting the Wizards in the second half the stock is rising. It has too because there is only way to go up and books don’t want to finish the season with a team winning only 30% of their games vs the spread like Washington is right now. Problem is despite how high the lines go I don’t think the talent is there to compensate
Betting Stock: Rising

Bobcats
The same exact story as Washington. I should have just copied and pasted what I wrote for them. I think oddsmakers continue to inflate the line so the betting public isn’t able to auto fade this team every night but I’m not sure it even helps. So in the sense of saying their betting stock alone is on the rise since oddsmakers will be making adjustments I’m not sure if the talent can compensate. The Wizards and Bobcats are two young teams and you never know you may see them play hard down the stretch but you won’t see me with many tickets involving either team
Betting Stock: Rising

The first half of the NBA season flew by but it’s no secret that the second half of the season is where I’ve done most of my damage over the years especially the Playoffs where two years in a row combined we won over 69% of our NBA playoffs bets and that’s not a typo. If you need to get on board with an proven and respected advisor in the industry for the second half of the season look no further as I have daily, weekly, monthly, and season packages in the NBA to have you covered. right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

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