MLB Betting: Steam Chasers

I’ve been doing a study that I’ve been tracking since opening day on how a bettor who chases MLB steam would fare over the course of the season. By chasing steam I mean a bettor who simply follows line moves betting baseball. Over the years I’ve been taught by many old school guys that following line moves in MLB is irrelevant since it doesn’t take much money to move a MLB line. Let’s see how the results are looking through early May.

The criteria is I track all money lines at one of my local books that uses a normal 10 cent MLB lines. I’ve tracked all MLB lines that move 10 cents or more from the opening line to the closing line and track the results. All results are graded on the closing line not the opening line. I was actually very surprised at the results thus far.

Betting Favorites that moved 10 cents or more
50-23 (68%) +17.04 units

So yes a bettor who bet to win $100 on every MLB favorite that the line moved 10 cents or greater in the direction of the favorite from the opening number to closing number won 68% of their bets and would have netted a profit of $1,704. Pretty shocking huh? I was definitely a little surprised when I saw this. When I told a lot of the old school guys about this before I posted this blog they said the same thing. Check back with me in late September and give me the results. Their theory is the juice will eat away at these profits through the course of the season.

Betting Underdogs that moved 10 cents or more
45-48 (48%) +10.09 units

So yes a bettor who risked $100 on every MLB dog that the line moved 10 cents or great in the direction of the dog from the opening number to the closing number 48% of their bets and would have netted a profit of $1,009. It shows you to make money in MLB you don’t need to mess around with the juice. You could have won less than 50% of your bets and still be up money.

Betting Underdogs and favorites that moved 10 cents or more final results
95-71 (57%) +27.13 units

Combining both the results of favorites and underdogs from above you would have won 57% of your bets and a $100 bettor would be up $2,713 just by chasing steam watching lines move and betting right before the first pitch.

I never suggest following line moves on the blind but I did find the early results through a little over a month of baseball very interesting. I’ll be tracking this all year and do my next update by the All-Star Break. We’ll get a picture if the steam chasers are making money or not with a greater sample size.

One thing I can tell you is my clients and I have been making money on the bases this year. I’ve only bet one favorite and concentrated on nothing but underdogs and totals. It keeps me away from heavy juice and lessens our risk. If you need an advisor for MLB this season look no further because you can get my daily, weekly, monthly, and season baseball passes right here at the site or by calling me at the office at (757) 462-9030.

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