MLB Betting Marketplace: Overvalued Teams

You would never pay over market asking price when buying a house or a stock, so why would you to bet on a team? Betting baseball to me as I’ve preached in previous blogs is all about price and value. I’m not so interested in a particular “team”. I’m more interested in the “price” aka Money Line that team is being set at daily. I want to ask myself does the price look over or under valued or is it about right to market conditions. If I feel a certain team is over or undervauled on a certain day I want to dig deeper to see am I making a mistake in the price of this game or did oddsmakers make a mistake when setting this line for the betting marketplace.

Sometimes the market (bettors) are over or under pricing a particular team and oddsmakers are anticipating/shading the line to the publics wrong perception when setting a Money Line on a game. It’s up to us sharp investors to stay on top of that bad pricing by studying the market every day and exploiting any edges we can find. I’m going to go over some particular teams that are overpriced right now in my opinion. In order to make money during the MLB season you need to stay on top of the mistakes in pricing on a daily basis. These teams maybe overpriced today but as with any marketplace this can fluctuate daily! So you really need to pay attention to the lines and what is going on with each team! But who said sports betting is easy money?

The Brewers are a red hot 16-5 in their last 21. They’ve only been a dog five times in those 21 games and are usually steep favorites so I’d say their market price is right on point. No edge either way and they’re being priced correctly. Sure I could tout that the Indians and D’Backs are the most profitable teams in MLB but does that mean they are undervalued? Nope I don’t. I think reality catches up to the D’Backs sooner than the Indians. Cleveland maybe for real but only time will tell. The marketplace has caught up with both of them so far so it’s not like you’re going to find extreme value in either of these teams right now.

Overvalued Teams
1.Colorado Rockies
I’ve been an avid investor of the Rockies in home games at Coors Field over the past few years and have raked in a ton of money. This year that simply isn’t the case. They are 13-15 at home this year and are -1240 on the Money Line at home this year.

That means if you were a $100 bettor you’d be in the hole $1,240 backing the Rockies at home. One of the key components for this is the falling stock of Ubaldo Jiminez. It’s never good when your ace is having a season like he is. In a past blog I’ve said he is one of the hurlers that I want to look to fade when he steps on the mound because he is overpriced by the market right now.

The problem to me is a sub par bullpen and sub par starting rotation. Jiminez, Jason Hammel, and Jhoulys Chaycin rank in the bottom third of the National League as far as their market worth in my opinion. They are all in the red this year as far as money earned for bettors in games they started. The Rockies are a money pit at home right now and I’d steer clear of them for the time being until they turn things around. We all know around September though this team seems to generate a spark in play as they develop a late season run. We shall see how that turns out.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dogers are being priced like a team that is slightly better than the record indicates. They’ve been installed as a favorite in 33 of their 56 games this year. If we want to round it up for every five games they are installed a favorite three times. That’s not something I want to see out of a team that is four games below .500 right now.

There pitching isn’t that bad, their starters actually rank third in the league with 36 quality starts. The problem lies within their porous offense. It seems like this group just can’t drive in runs for whatever the reason. Regardless how good their starters pitch they can’t give them enough run support to consistently win games. That small ball style is going to be tough to be a legitimate threat in the NL this year.

You have to remember that the Dodgers are a Marquee team in a huge market from Los Angeles which lies in very close proximity to Vegas. Often Los Angeles teams will as other big market teams with large followings will be overpriced in the marketplace. If they can start to hit the ball and drive in runs they can turn things around because they do have talent. Until I see an offensive spark I feel there is no value in backing the Dodgers. We didn’t even get to go into all the front office issues looming either!

3. Oakland A’s
The young pitching staff looks great in Oakland but I think it’s a matter of weeks before this team really starts to play to what their true market value is. So yes I forecast them to implode sooner than later. They were installed as a favorite in all 11 home games against the AL’s elite teams ( Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers ,Indians). They finished 4-7 in those games. They would’ve had to win at least 7 of those games for you to see a red cent of profit.

Yes this young pitching staff looks as bright as any in the league but I see two major flaws which will sink this team by the time All-Star Break arrives. They are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball and are third in the most errors on the defensive side of things. I predict the A’s stock will fall and the market is focusing too much on the pitching stats and now the real truth that this team is completely overvalued right now.

I pretty much have picking the MLB betting marketplace down to a science. If you need some help gaining an edge over your book in MLB this season I suggest you look no further. Summers are when a lot of sports bettors take off as they wait for football season. I disagree because I think there is some nice cash to be made during baseball season. You can get on board with me for all my premium plays daily, monthly, and for a full season right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757)-462-9030

Want Free Picks?

Sign Up for my news-letter & I'll email them to you!

Find Out More