3 Rules of Profitable Sports Betting

Being a profitable sports bettor is like anything else in life…it takes hard work, preparation, discipline and a little luck. It is a grueling odyssey filled with heroic covers, bad beats, long nights and early mornings. Nevertheless, there are ways to successfully navigate this journey to your advantage, regardless if you only bet one sport or you wager year-round. Below we’ll discuss three of the key rules to abide by in order to avoid the typical pitfalls that most gamblers succumb. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but by following these guidelines you’ll have a better chance than most to add to your bankroll.

The most important piece of this puzzle is money management. Being smart and disciplined is key. Chasing losses and bailing out with a huge wager on a Sunday or Monday night game that you don’t particularly like is not part of being a profitable sports bettor. Remember, it is a daily grind; the objective is to build your bankroll in stages. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Find a standard bet size that works for your bankroll. This will help you gauge the strength of selections. There is nothing worse than blowing your whole bankroll by Week 4 of the NFL season and then trying to save up to wager again by the college bowl season or the NFL playoffs. I have found over the years that a betting season is broken up into three different parts: (i) 25% Hot Streaks; (ii) 25% Cold Streaks; and (iii) 50% Your Personal Average (median). During those hot streaks, it’s okay to press a little more and up your wager amount. When the chills of a cold streak rear their ugly head, it’s time to become more selective with your bets and lower your bet size. Although discipline with your cash is an absolute must, when you find a game that brings extreme value and you believe you have a real edge, bury it! Taking advantage of those opportunities are what can be the difference between a good season and a great season.

Another cog of the process is to develop realistic expectations. When factoring in the juice, you need to win 52.38% of the time (assuming -110 odds). A winning percentage of 55% is not only a reasonable goal, but very profitable! To put that in perspective, the best of the best sports bettors in the world typically average around 57%-62% a year. I don’t care what some of these sleazy touts will try to tell you, to win at a rate of 70% or 80% of the time over the long haul is just not realistic and that is why discipline and money management are very important. Additionally, it is critical to mention that variance plays a large role in sports betting. Variance, in a simple sense, is the inevitability that there will be great short-term runs and really bad short-term runs. As the sample size increases, variance decreases. Similar to if you bought an index mutual fund versus buying three individual stocks. The greater the variance, the greater the swings in profit and loss. As was mentioned above, the great runs and the bad runs will usually net each other off. It is the performance in between that matters most.

The last slice of the pie we’ll discuss is emotions. It is critical to any sports bettor to check their emotions at all times. Although the excitement of a great cover is part of the draw, at the end of the day, your objective needs to be making money. It’s only fun when you’re winning! It’s easy to get wrapped up in the daily roller coaster ride that is the betting season; however, it is imperative that you learn how to take the good with the bad. You need to expect to have bad beats. The important part is how do you react to those? The wrong way, as we discussed earlier, is to load up or bail out on the next game, because you are upset over a bad individual loss or a short-term losing streak. Keep your head focused on the big picture. It’s not called “The Grind” for nothing! No doubt you should enjoy the tough, big wins, but never let the highs get too high or the lows get too low.

Although there are many variables, including getting the best of the line and obviously, winning your wagers, that go into being a long-term, successful sports handicapper; by following the above advice, you can enjoy the entire betting season and avoid the hazards that most players fall into.
Good luck and keep cashing!

Twitter: @misterquinnbets

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