2016 Week 5 NFL Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 1 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometimes it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Arizona @ San Francisco

Two action here reported from my NYC bookie source. He said he opened this -2.5 and strong sharp money came in on the Cardinals moving this right through the key number of 3 up to -4. He said at +4 he saw some buy from opposing sharps on the 49’ers and dropped to 3.5 as we go live. He said sharps are split on the Total as well, but he has more overall sharp money on the Over. Same exact story in Vegas with sharps on the Cardinals from -2.5 to -3.5 and resistance came in at +4 with 49’ers money. He said one group of sharps hit him on the Over from the 42 to 43 range and an opposing group of sharps took Under 43.5.

Jets @ Steelers

Here in NYC my local contact said sharps like the Steelers betting him from -7 to -7.5 early in the week but as public money came in on the Jets he moved down to 7 where he said he’s likely to stay for now. His Total is down a half of tick from 48.5 to 48. In Vegas my oddsmaker source tells me sharps are split on the side. One group likes the Steelers-7 and other sharps took the Jets+7.5. He also noted his Totals is down from 48.5 to 48.

New England @ Cleveland

My NYC guy said sharps are split on this game. Initially he opened this at 10.5 and was bet down to 10 with Cleveland money before an opposing sharp group came in on New England and moved him back to 10.5. He said was hit some more sharp money on Cleveland after moving back to 10.5 and has adjusted his juice to Cleveland -120 for now. His Total is down from 47 to 46.5. Initial sharp support in Vegas on New England moved my Vegas source from -10 to -11 where he saw sharp buy back on the Browns at +11 moving him back to 10.5. His Total is down from 47 to 46.5. Both guys said the public money on New England will outweigh any sharp action they took early on Cleveland and both will likely need Cleveland this weekend.

Tennessee @ Miami
My NYC local bookie source tells me sharps have been interested in the dog and the Under. They bet Tennesse down from +4 to +3.5 and his Total is down from 44 to 43. Nothing to report from my Vegas contact on this one.

Houston @ Minnesota
Nothing to report in NYC on this one. My Vegas contact said he opened this -6 and took some sharp money on the Vikings which moved him to -6.5. He said it’s been quiet since he moved this one.

Washington @ Baltimore
My NYC guy told me he took one big bet from a sharp guy he respects on Washington but not enough to move him off of 4. He said the stronger sharp move has been on the Under. Sharps bet the Under strong moving him from 47.5 to 45. The Side is quiet in Vegas but my Oddsmaker source confirms he took sharp money on the Under moving him from 46.5 to 45.

Chicago @ Indianapolis
My NYC guy reports a little back and forth between sharps on this one. He said one group of sharps took Chicago +4.5 while another is on the Colts-4. Nothing in Vegas to report on this one.

Philadelphia @ Detroit
Early sharp love for Philly moving them from -2 to -3 in NYC. My Local bookie tells me he hasn’t seen any buy back yet on Detroit but he will likely need it. He said he expects the public on Philly as well and likely will be very lopsided on this with the public and early sharp money on Philly and may end up needing Detroit here. A little sharp move from -2.5 to -3 in Vegas according to my contact. He tells me it wasn’t that strong of a move and once he moved to 3 the love stopped. He did note that he also expects the public heavy on Philly and could end up needing Detroit as well.

Atlanta @ Denver
My local guy tells me he opened this up at 6.5 and saw Falcons love move him down as low as 4.5 News Trevor Simien was probable came in and he took it off the board and reopened at 6 and saw sharps come back in again on Atlanta+6 and he moved to 5.5 where all is quiet. My Vegas reports two way action here. He opened this at 5.5 and was bet up to -6 with initial sharp money on Denver. He pulled it off the board and reopened it at the same line he was already at which was -6 with news Simien would play. He said at +6 he did take Falcons money as well and is down to 5.5 too. He said when he reopened the Total at 48 he took a little Under money moving him to 47.5.

Cincinnati @ Dallas
A few early sharp bets in NYC cmae in on the Bengals here moving them from a PK to -1. My Vegas guy told me it’s all sharp money on the Bengals moving them from a +1 dog to a -1 favorite as we go to press. Both guys did confirm to me they expect the public on Cincinnati too and will likely need some sharp support from Dallas at some point otherwise they will be exposed here with the public support and early sharp support on the Bengals here and may end up needing Dallas.

San Diego @ Oakland

Here in NYC there has been some sharp interest on the Chargers moving my guy from +4.5 to +4. He also reported a big move on the Under, moving him from 53 to 49.5. He said at 49.5 he did take some buyback on the Over settling him at 50 on the Total. My Vegas guy tells me he took some sharp money on San Diego at +4 and moved his down to +3.5 as we go to press. Nothing on the Total to report.

Buffalo @ Los Angeles

Here in NYC sharps like Buffalo. They bet him strong enough at +3 causing him to move the Bills to +2.5. His Total is down from 40 to 39.5. Same story in Vegas with sharps taking Buffalo+3.

NY Giants @ Green Bay
Here in NYC my local guy says he will definitely be rooting for Green Bay with the local NYC betting public taking the Giants here. He made out good on Monday Night with the Giants losing and will need the same scenario. He said early sharp action on the Giants at +8 and +7.5 moved him to 7. He did note at 7 he saw some opposing sharp interest on the Packers-7 which he said he definitely needed. My Vegas contact did confirm he took sharp action on the Giants+7.5 and when he moved to 7 all has been quiet.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Off the board at time of Blog.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. Over the last 5 years I’ve won 61% of my L/278 NFL bets after a huge 4-1 Sunday last week. It’s good to have a guy like me and the rest of the handicappers here at We Cover Spreads by your side come Sunday. The rest of the crew is ready to go this season in NFL! Hop on board with us this week as we look to exploit the marketplace.You can pick up my plays and the rest of the cappers right here on the site.

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