2013 NFL Week 4 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 4 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday
San Francisco @ St. Louis (+3, O/U 42)

My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this up at 3 and said it will take some big money to move this off of the key # of 3. He did note he expects heavy recreational bettor volume on the 49’ers so moving off of 3 is a possibility. The total opened at 42.5 and was bet down a half of tick to 42. Here in NYC at our local underground shops this opened at 3.5 and sharps bet the dog at 3.5. Remember old school sharps love divisional home dogs and they were quick to grab the points. At 3 the love stopped. The total opened at 43 and was bet down to 42 with Under support.

Sunday
Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (+1, O/U 42)

My Vegas oddsmaker contact said a little early sharp money came in on Pittsburgh at -1 and this moved to -2 as we go to press. He said if this were to hit 3 you would likely see buyback from other sharps. Total is quiet at 42. Here in NYC at our local shops this opened at -1 and went to -1.5 where there was some sharp buy back on the Vikings at 1.5. So here in NYC sharps have come in on both sides. Total quiet.

Seattle @ Houston (+3, O/U 41.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me he’s holding steady on the key # of 3 for the time being and the total has been bet down a half of tick from 42 to 42.5. Here in NYC our local books are dealing with early sharp money coming on the Texans at +3 and have the vig up to -130 to bet the Texans. He said they’ll try to hold of going to 2.5 for as long as they can. The total opened at 44 and strong Under support came in moving this down to 42.5 as we go to press.

NY Giants @ Kansas City (-4.5, O/U 44)
This opened at -4 in Sin City and my Vegas oddsmaker contact told me the early interest was on the Chiefs. He moved this to 4.5 where all has been quiet. Nothing to report on the total early. Same exact story here in NYC.

Baltimore @ Buffalo (+3, O/U 44)
Out on the Vegas strip my oddsmaker contact told they opened this up at 3.5 and they enticed early sharp action on the Bills. He moved down to 3 where all has been quiet. Nothing to report on the total. He did say he expects the Ravens to be a popular team with the recreational bettors on Sunday and you may see this move back up to 3.5 where sharps would likely bite on the dog again. Same exact story here on the East Coast.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-4, O/U 41.5)
The Bengals will be another popular team for recreational bettors to back on Sunday but my Vegas oddsmaker contact told me all the early sharp money has come in on the Browns. Remember old school sharps love divisional home dogs. This opened at 5.5 at his shop and has been bet down to 4 as we go to press. Nothing to report on the total. Here in NYC same exact story as Vegas.

Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-1, O/U 40.5)
News that Josh Freeman was not starting this game attracted a little sharp money on the Cardinals at +3 in Sin City and my Vegas oddsmaker contact moved this line to 2.5 as we go to press. Here in NYC we saw a 2.5 opener bet down to 1 with some Cardinals support coming in early here. Nothing to report on the total.

Chicago @ Detroit (-3, O/U 47)
My Vegas oddsmaker source told me he’s seen sharp money on both sides. Early in the week he took a few big wagers on the Bears at +3 and dropped the line down to 2.5 where other sharps came in on the Lions and the line has settled at 3 as we go to press. Nothing early to report on the total. This game is quiet so far in NYC at our local shops.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+9.5, O/U 42.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source told me he opened this at 9 to keep the Colts out of the teaser window and some early sharp money came in on Jacksonville moving this down to 8. He said that books will need the Jaguars on Sunday because he expects the Colts to be the most heavily bet team for recreational bettors on Sunday. Nothing to report on the side here in NYC early in the week. Total bet up a half of tick from 42 to 42.5

Dallas @ San Diego (+1, O/U 47)
Nothing to report on the side early in the week in Vegas but the total which opened at 45.5 was bet up to 47 with some Over support in Sin City. Same exact story here in NYC.

Washington @ Oakland (+3, O/U 43.5)
Nothing to report in NYC or Vegas on this game early in the week.

Philadelphia @ Denver (-11, O/U 57.5)
The public loves backing Peyton Manning and my Vegas oddsmaker contact said in the late games this will be the most popular recreational bet team and books will be rooting for the Eagles. He said he expects sharps to sit out and wait for as long as possible to see how high the public drives this line before taking a shot on the Eagles plus the points. Here in NYC all is quiet on the side and total early in the week.

New England @ Atlanta (-1, O/U 49.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at New England-1 and he said the sharp money came in strong for the Falcons and this line quickly shifted to the Falcons-1. He did mention the public does love betting on Tom Brady but he thinks overall the money on this game will be skewed if the public decides to back the Falcons here like the sharps did. He did make a good point that sharps like the Falcons at +1 and now at -1 it’s been quiet. Here in NYC same story with strong sharp support early on for the Falcons. The total has been up from 49 to 50 as we go to press with some Over support.

Monday
Miami @ New Orleans (-6.5, O/U 48)

This opened at -5.5 and early sharp money both in NYC and Vegas came in on the Saints according to my sources. That’s bad news for bookies coast to coast because they both told me they expect heavy recreational money on the Saints come Monday night. My NYC source told me if this happens to hit 7 anytime between now and Monday you will likely see some opposing sharps waiting for the best # they can get Miami at. The total has been bet up from 47 to 48 with some early support for the Over.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. We are on a 14-6 (70%) NFL 5* Banger run and Long term we’ve been beating up on the books in NFL 103-63-4 (62%) L/170 NFL Bets! It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Saturday and Sunday as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site.

Want Free Picks?

Sign Up for my news-letter & I'll email them to you!

Find Out More