2013 NFL Week 1 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 1 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday
Baltimore @ Denver (-7.5, O/U 48.5)

My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at 9 over the Summer and said within the past couple of days he’s seen sharp money come in on the dog moving this down to 7.5 come press time. The total opened at 49.5 in the desert and got as low as 48 before settling at 49 as we go to press. Here in NYC at local underground shops the side opened at 8.5 back in May got up to 9 and same story as Vegas with sharp money on the Ravens side. The total opened 49.5 here in the city and is at 48 as we go to press.

Sunday
New England @ Buffalo (+9.5, O/U 51)

My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 7.5 in the early Summer and saw early Patriots money drive this as high as 10.5. Recently with limits getting bigger he said some opposing sharps grabbed the 10.5 on the dog and moved this down to 9.5. He said the total opened at 53 and has been bet down to 50 as we go to press with some under money coming in. In NYC on our local bookie scene same exact story on the side and total

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7, O/U 42)
This opened at 6.5 in the desert and was bet up a half of tick to 7. My Vegas oddsmaker source said he opened the total at 44 and has been bet down to 42 as we go to press. Same exact story here in NYC on our local scene.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3, O/U 54)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at 2.5 and took early Saints money moving this up to the key # of 3 where all has been quiet. So sharps liked the Saints under -3 but once it hit 3 the love stopped. The total has been bouncing around between 54.5 and 53.5 at his shop. Nothing early to report from my NYC bookie source on this game. They opened at -3 and right now have the Saints at -3 with -115 juice attached charging a little extra premium to bet the Saints. He said this will likely stay on 3 unless some big money comes in on either side to move this off the key #.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville (+4, O/U 41)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at -2.5 and said he saw lots of early sharp support for the Chiefs under -3. He said with the public betting the Chiefs they’ve moved the line to -4 in hope of getting some money on Jacksonville to balance things out. The total has been bet up from 40 to 41. Here in NYC the move on the Chiefs opened at -2.5 and has crossed 3 to 3.5 as we go to press. The total opened at 39.5 according to my local contact and is up to 41 with some Over support as we go to press.

Seattle @ Carolina (+3.5, O/U 44.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact said he opened the Panthers +3.5 and sharps took the hook and he moved the game down to 3. He said he expects recreational money and parlays with Seattle this weekend and wouldn’t be surprised if this moved back up to 3.5 where sharps would likely take a stab at the dog again. Nothing to report on the total in Vegas. Same exact story here in NYC in our local underground scene on this game.

Cincinnatti @ Chicago (-3, O/U 41)
In Sin City my Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at 3.5 back in May and said the sharp preference was to take the hook with the dog and they moved this down to 3 where all has been quiet since. He said they opened the total at 45 and he saw a strong sharp sentiment to the under betting this down to 42 as we go to press making it the biggest total move of the week in Vegas at his shops. Same exact story on the side and total here in NYC with the total being bet down even lower from the 45 opener to 41 as we go to press.

Miami @ Cleveland (PK, O/U 41)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at Miami-1 and said a little dog money came in from sharps and this has settled at a PK as we approach opening weekend. The total opened at 40.5 at his shop. It was bet as low as 39.5 before settling back at 40.5 as we go to press. Here in NYC according to my local bookie connection this opened a PK with early money in the Summer on Miami pushing this up to 1.5 before some opposing sharp money came in on Cleveland at +1.5 and +1 moving this down to a PK. The total opened at 39.5 and has been bet up to 41.5 as we go to press in the City with some Over support coming in.

Oakland @ Indianapolis (-9.5, O/U 47)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at -7 and said they quickly moved the favorite out of the teaser window to -9.5 as we go to press. He said it was pretty much a move on air to get the Colts out the teaser window early. He did mention the total opened at 49 and was bet down to 47 with some Under support coming in. Here in NYC on our local underground scene same exact story on side and total. Books were in no rush to take Colts teaser exposure this weekend and quickly protected themselves.

Arizona @ St.Louis (-4.5, O/U 41)
This opened at 6 over the Summer and my Vegas oddsmaker contact told me the early sharp sentiment has been support for the dog moving this down to 4.5. He said the total has been bet up from 40 to 41 as we go to press. Here in NYC on our local scene same exact story on the side with early support coming in on the dog and nothing to report on the total.

Green Bay @ San Francisco (-4.5, O/U 48.5)
It’s a late game with a big handle expected from bettors on Sunday. My Vegas oddsmaker source told me he opened this at 5.5 and is down to 5 as we go to press. He said the total has been bet down to 49 off a 50.5 opener with some under support coming in. Here in NYC on our local scene this opened at 5.5 and was bet as low as 4 with Packers support coming in from sharps. Once it 4 my local contact told me they did take some opposing sharp money on the 49’ers and bumped the line back up to 4.5. Same story on the total with some early Under support coming in.

NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, O/U 48.5)
Nothing early to report on the side or total from Vegas contact on this one. Here in NYC on our local scene some sharps laid -3 on the opener with the Cowboys and things have moved up to 3.5 as we go to press. Here in NYC our local books will likely take plenty of local Giants fans cash on the Giants and this line could head back to 3 locally speaking. The total is down half a tick from the 49 opener to 48.5.

Monday
Philadelphia @ Washington (-3.5, O/U 51.5)

My Vegas oddsmaker told me all the early support has been on the Eagles moving this from 5.5 to 3.5 with sharps gobbling up the number over the Summer. He said all has been quiet over the past couple of weeks on this game and he made note if sharps really still loved Washington that 3.5 would have been gone already. Here in NYC my local bookie source said it’s been all Eagles money from sharps and it continues to flow in this week. So a little different story than Vegas. The total has been bet up from the 50.5 opener to 51.5.

Houston @ San Diego (+3, O/U 44)
In Sin City my Vegas oddsmaker source told me he opened this at at -3.5 and took a little action on the Chargers and moved the line to -3. But as the Summer progressed he said it’s been Texans money pouring in from recreational bettors and he’s up to 4 as we go to press. Here in NYC all is quiet on the side but the total did some sharp love on the Under getting bet down two points from the opening #.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. SLong term we’ve been beating up on the books in NFL 99-60-4 (62%) L/162 NFL Bets! It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Saturday and Sunday as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site.

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