2012 NFL Week 5 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 4 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday
Arizona @ St.Louis (+1.5, O/U 39.5)

This line opened at Cardinals-1 and has flip flopped back and forth between -1 and -1.5 all week at my Vegas oddsmakers shop. The total has been bet up from a 38 opener to 39.5. Here on the NYC local scene this opened up Cardinals-3 and quickly saw sharp support for the divisional home dog. Remember sharps love divisional home dogs in the NFL. They bet the Rams from +3 to +1.5 come press time. The total has been bet up from 38.5 to 39.5.

Sunday
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh (-3, O/U 43.5)

Out on the Vegas strip my oddsmaker source opened this line at Steelers -4 and saw support come in for the Eagles in this spot moving line down from +4 to +3 where the love eventually stopped. The total was bet down a half of tick from 44.5 to 44. Here in NYC this opened at Eagles +4 and was bet down to +3.5 come press time with adjusted -115 juice to grab the hook on the dog. The total opened at 44.5 and was bet down to 43.5 come press time.

Miami @ Cincinnati (-3, O/U 45)
Very strong move to the dog in Vegas. My oddsmaker source said they opened this line Dolphins+6 and they have been bet all the way down to +3.5 come press time. He said the total was bet up a half of tick from 44.5 to 45. This opened at 5 in NYC and my local bookie source told me the same thing as they saw a move toward the dog moving this down to 3.5 with adjusted -115 juice to bet the dog. Stronger move toward the Over as it opened up 43 and has been bet up 2 points to 45 come press time.

Green Bay @ Indianapolis (+7, O/U 48)
My oddsmaker contact told me he opened this up at 7 and was bet down 6.5 initially when the limits were low on Sunday afternoon. He took the game off the board and reopened it at 7 and there has been no big move on the side of this game. The total has been bet down a half of tick from 48 to 47.5 come press time. Nothing to report in NYC on the side or total of this game.

Cleveland @ NY Giants (-9, O/U 44)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 10.5 and saw a strong move toward the dog moving this line down to 9 where he says it’s likely to stay put as they try to keep the Giants out of the teaser window for this weekend. Nothing to report on the total in this game out on the Vegas strip. Same exact story on this game in NYC at our local bookies.

Atlanta @ Washington (+3, O/U 50.5)
Nothing to report on the Vegas strip on this game as everything is quiet at 3 and 50 come press time. Here in NYC books opened this line at Falcons-1 and moved it on air to Falcons-3. Nothing to report on the total as of yet on the east coast either.

Baltimore @ Kansas City (+6, O/U 46.5)
One of the more volatile moves in the desert this week to report. My oddsmaker source says this opened Baltimore-6.5 where they took some dog money. Took the game off the board and reopened it at 4.5. Since opening at 4.5 the line has been climbing in the other direction as Ravens money comes in and has moved up to 6 come press time. He said the Ravens will be a huge public side this weekend and expects the line to maybe keep climbing where he hopes some dog money reenters the marketplace. The total has been bet up from 45.5 to 46.5 come press time. According to my local NYC guy they opened this at 6 and where hit with early dog money moving this down to 4.5 but same story as Vegas as we are up to 6 come press time as money has come the other way. Same exact story on the total.

Seattle @ Carolina (-3, O/U 43)
My Vegas contact opened this up at Panthers-2.5 and saw some early Panthers money come in and moved this to -3 where the love stopped. He said they didn’t take any buy back on the dog. The total has been bet down a half of tick at his shop from 44 to 43.5. Nothing to report on the side in this game in NYC but the total has seen some Under money enter the market as it has been bet down from the 44.5 opener to 43.5 come press time.

Chicago @ Jacksonville (+6, O/U 40)
Before the Bears even took the field on Monday night my vegas oddsmaker source opened this line Bears-3.5 where he took Chicago money moving up to 4. He took it off the board and opened it on Monday at 4 and has watched the Bears money pour in as they are to -6 at press time. He said he has nothing early to report on the total. Same exact story on this one here on the NYC local bookie scene.

Tennessee @ Minnesota (-5.5, O/U 44)
Jake Locker is out for this game but the market hasn’t made a strong move on the Vegas strip on this game. My oddsmaker source told me they opened this at 6 and took a little dog money moving down as low as 5 before settling at 5.5 come press time with nothing early to report on the total. Here in NYC it has been bouncing back and forth between 6 and 5.5 all week long. They said the sharp preference is Titans+6. The total has dropped from 45 to 43.5 with support for the Under.

Buffalo @ San Francisco (-10, O/U 44.5)
My Vegas contact told me the Bills not covering last week was definitely a blow to the sportsbooks in the early games. This week the Bills opened +10 and he said there hasn’t been any movement early on this game. He said if sharps liked the dog that +10 would have vanished along time ago. He said the Niners also killed the books last week tied into that Patriots game in parlays. Books will likely need the Bills in the late game. The total has been bet up a half of tick from 44 to 44.5. Here in NYC nothing to report on the side but local bookie source told me they opened at 43 and have been bet up to 44.5 come press time with some Over support.

Denver @ New England (-6.5, O/U 52)
Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning and my Vegas source said this game will give a great handle for books this weekend in the late start slot as recreational bettors will be heavily involved in this game. He opened the line at 7 and initially took a little dog money moving this down to 6.5 when the limits were lower last Sunday. He reopened at 7 on Monday morning and hasn’t seen any movement. Nothing to report on the total either. Here on the local NYC scene there has been a slight move to the dog moving this line off of the key # of 7 down to 6.5 come press time. The total has been bet down 1 point from 52.5 to 51.5 with some support for the Under coming in.

San Diego @ New Orleans (-3.5 (O/U 54)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact said he’s seeing sharp money come in on the win less Saints for the Sunday Night game as he opened this line Saints-3 and now is up to -3.5 with -125 juice attached to bet the favorite. He said the total has been bet up half of tick from 53.5 to 54 come press time. Here in NYC this game so a big move opening -3 and getting as high as -4.5 before seeing a buy back on the Chargers. Some sharps did buy back on the Chargers moving this back down to 3.5 come press time. The total opened at 52.5 and hit as high as 54 before settling at 53.5 come press time.

Monday
Houston @ NY Jets (+9, O/U 41.5)

My vegas oddsmaker contact thought the right number on this game was 7 but did move up to 8 in order to keep the Texans out of the teaser window. He expects heavy Houston money in a lopsided Monday Night battle where the books will absolutely need the NY Jets to come through with a cover. The total has been bet up a half of tick from 40.5 to 41 come press time. Books here in NYC opened this at -7 as well. They moved the # up to -9 to keep the Texans out of the teaser window but at 9 NYC wiseguys took a piece of the Jets and they moved this line back down to 8. Nothing to report on the total early.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one and since the 2010 NFL Playoffs my clients and are 81-54-4 (61%) winners my L/136 NFL bets. It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030

Want Free Picks?

Sign Up for my news-letter & I'll email them to you!

Find Out More