2012 NFL Week 4 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 4 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-11.5, O/U 44)

My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this up at Bal-12.5 and went up to -13 before seeing some resistance as Browns money came in driving this line down to 12 at press time. The total opened at 45 and was bet as low as 43.5 before settling at 44. Here in NYC my local bookie source opened this up at Baltimore-11.5 and went up as high as 13 before seeing resistance and sharp buy back on Cleveland moving this line down to 11.5. The total has been bet down a half of tick from 44 to 43.5.

Sunday

Seattle @ St.Louis (+3, O/U 38)

On the Vegas strip the Seahawks opened as a 2.5 point favorite it was bet up to 3 where my oddsmaker contact saw buyback on the Rams and moved the number back to 2.5. He said he seems they like the Rams at the key number of 3. Nothing to report on the total since he opened it later than most shops at 38.5. My local NYC source said they opened this at Seahawks-2.5 and have moved to 3 at press time with adjusted -125 vig to take the Rams at the key #. Remember old school sharps love divisional home dogs. The total opened up at 43 and saw a strong move to the Under being bet down to 39 come press time.

San Diego @ Kansas City (-1, O/U 44.5)

My Las Vegas source opened this Chargers-1.5 and took some strong sharp opinions on the Chiefs and these two teams flip flopped from Chiefs as the dog to Chiefs a 1 point favorite come press time. The total has bounced back and forth between 44.5 and 44 all week. Chargers opened a 2 point favorite here on the NYC underground scene and same story as Chiefs support came in moving them to a 1 point favorite. The total opened at 46 and has been bet down to 44.5 with support for the Under.

New England @ Buffalo (+4, O/U 51)

Out in the desert they opened this at Patriots-3.5 and took some big bets on the Bills and quickly moved to this to 3. He said it was because speculation Belichick would be suspended. They took the game off the board. After things calmed down and Bill wasn’t suspended they reopened at 3.5 and were bet up to Patriots -4 come press time. The total opened at 50 and has been bet up to 52 at his shop with Over support coming in. Here in NYC the local shops opened this at 3.5 and have moved up to 4 with attached -120 vig to bet the Bills. Remember old school sharps love divisional home dogs. The total opened at 51 and got as high as 52 before settling back at 51 come press time.

San Francisco @ NY Jets (+4, O/U 40.5)

My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 49’ers-3.5 and has been bet up to -4 with a little early 49’ers support coming in. The total opened at 39.5 and he saw some Over support moving this up to 40.5 come press time. Here in NYC it opened at 3.5 and went up to 4 before seeing buy back on the home dog in this spot. The total opened at 42 hit as low as 39.5 with Under support but since has been bet back up to 40.5 come press time.

Tennessee @ Houston (-11.5, O/U 45)

My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this game at 12.5 took it off the board for a little bit and reopened it at 12 with no movement to report. He said likely sharps will wait for the public to push this # up to 13 and may take a shot on the dog. The total has been bet up a half of tick to 45 from 44.5. Sharps in NYC have been a little more active early on this game. It opened at 13 and my local bookie source said clear support on the dog here moving this line down to 11.5. Remember over history double digit dogs are profitable in the NFL. Nothing to report on the total which has been quiet all week.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-7, O/U 48.5)

My Vegas oddsmaker opened this at 7.5 and said he took some sharp action on the dog taking the hook at 7.5 but the love stopped once he hit 7. The total opened at 49 and was bet down a half of tick to 48.5. Here in NYC books protected themselves opening this # at Atlanta-9 to keep them out of the teaser window but they ended up taking sharp money on the dog moving this all the way down to 7 come press time. The total opened up at 50 and has been bet down to 48.5 come press time.

Oakland @ Denver (-6.5, O/U 48.5)

My Vegas contact opened this up at 6 and was bet up to 6.5 come press time. The total opened at 47 was bet up to 48.5 with support coming in on the Over. Same exact story on the side here in NYC in our underground local bookie scene but the total opened at 48.5 hit as low as 47.5 before settling at 48.5 come press time.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (+2.5, O/U 42.5)

My Las Vegas source said on the strip they opened this at Bengals-1.5 and have been bet up to -2.5 come press time. The total has been bet down a half of tick from the 43 opener to 42.5. Same exact story on the side here in NYC. The total opened at 44 and was bet down to 43 with some Under support come in at press time.

Miami @ Arizona (-6, O/U 39.5)

My Vegas bookie contact told me nothing to report on the side or total of this game as of yet. But did say he expects the Cardinals to be a very popular teaser bet on Sunday. Here in NYC this line opened at 7 and we saw clear support come in on the Dolphins here pushing this # down to 6. The total was also bet down with Under support moving this to 39.5 from a 41.5 opener. They said this should be a classic sharps vs squares battle.

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3, O/U 47)

Nothing to report from the desert on the side here as they’ve been quiet at they key # of 3 all week. He did say the total was bet down a half of tick from 48 to 47.5 come press time. Here in the NYC local scene the Bucs opened at -1.5 early in the week and saw sharp support moving them all the way up to the key # of 3 come press time. The total opened at 49 and has been bet down to 47.5 come press time with support for the Under.

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-7.5, O/U 53.5)

Nothing to report out on the Vegas strip as this has been quiet at 7.5 and 54 come press time. Here in NYC this opened at 7 and sharps did lay the 7 with the Packers and local bookies adjusted moving this up to 7.5 come press time. The total has been bet down a half of tick from 54 to 53.5 come press time. Expect the Packers to be a popular teaser bet on Sunday!

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-1, O/U 47.5)

My Vegas oddsmaker source said there’s been a lack of respect for this Eagles team in the market this week and Philly opened as a 2.5 point favorite and all NY Giants money has been coming in moving this down to 1 come press time. He said the total opened at 47.5 and was bet as low as 45.5 before settling at 46 come press time. Same exact story on the side here in NYC and the total has bounced around between 46.5 and 47.5 all week.

Monday

Chicago @ Dallas (-3, O/U 41)

My Vegas oddsmaker has this line sitting at 3.5 all week long which tells him one thing and that’s sharps don’t like the dog since they aren’t taking the hook. He did say he has seen a strong move to the Under as both of these offenses haven’t exactly been clicking with the total being bet down to 42 from a 44 opener. Different story in the NYC underground market. This opened at 3.5 and initially was bet as high as 4 before seeing buy back on the dog moving this down to the key # of 3 come press time. The total opened at 45.5 and was bet down 41.5 with very strong move to the Under from sharps.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one since the past couple of weekends my clients and I have dominated the NFL going 12-4-1 (75%) winners. It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030

Want Free Picks?

Sign Up for my news-letter & I'll email them to you!

Find Out More