2012 NFL Week 3 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 14 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday
NY Giants @ Carolina (-2.5, O/U 49.5
)
Out on the Vegas strip this game opened Giants-1 and went up to -1.5 before news broke that the Giants would be without Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, and David Diehl the market didn’t waste any time and the money came in on the Panthers moving this to -2 at my oddsmaker contacts shop on the strip. Under money started hitting his shop moving the total down from 52 to 50. Here in NYC the books opened the Giants as a 2.5 point favorite with heavy expected Giants money coming but with news of the injured players the the money came in on strong on Carolina moving this to Panthers-2.5 with adjusted -120 juice come press time. The total is down to 49.5 already with Under support on the total from the 52 opener.

Sunday
St.Louis @ Chicago (O/U 7.5, O/U 44)

My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened the Bears at -8.5 to keep the Bears out of the teaser window but he started to get some sharp support on the Rams moving this number down to 7.5. The total has been bet down a half of tick from 45 to 44.5. Same story on the side here on the local NYC underground scene as this moved down to 7.5 from a 9 opener and the total has been bet down to 44 from the 45 opener with Under support.

Cincinnati @ Washington (-3, O/U 49)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this up at Washington -4 and has seen some support come in for the dog moving this down to 3.5 with -120 juice attached and said if the support keeps coming on the Bengals he may move to 3 shortly after this blog is posted. The Bengals defense hasn’t been impressive so far and the Redskins lost 2 key defensive starters so sharps have bet the total up with Over support moving this from 47.5 all the way up to 49. Here in NYC this opened at -3.5 and Washington was bet up to -4 but now it’s bet down to -3 with -120 juice attached to bet the Skins. The total out here saw major Over support as well being bet up to 49 from the 46.5 opener.

Buffalo @ Cleveland (+3,O/U 44.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact said he has nothing to report to me early on this game yet for the side or total. He did indicate if this does get up to 3.5 on gameday he would expect sharp money to come in on the home dog. Nothing to report yet here on the NYC scene. The only thing is this opened Browns +3 with -110 juice and now it’s up to -3 with -125 juice attached with some sharp support coming in on Cleveland.

San Francisco @ Minnesota (+6.5, O/U 43)
My Vegas source opened this up at 49’ers -6.5 and was bet up to -7 before settling back at -6.5 come press time. He expects heavy public action on the Niners come Sunday and expects the # back up to 7 where sharps may hit the dog again. The total has been bet down from 44.5 to 43.5 with some Under support. Here in NYC at our local books this opened at 49’ers -6 and was bet up to -7 but has settled back at -6.5 come press time. The total opened at 44 was initially bet up to 44.5 and at that # sharps loved the under and hit it and books adjusted the # back to 43.5 without hesitation.

Kansas City @ New Orleans (-9, O/U 53)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact said he has nothing to report on the side of this game but the total which opened at 54 was bet up a half of tick to 54.5 but has been bet down to 53 come press time. Here on the NYC scene my local bookie contact said they opened this at Saints-10 and took Chiefs money moving this line down to Chiefs+9. The total has bounced around all week between 53 and 54.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-3, O/U 42)
Out in the desert my contact said nothing to report at the key # of 3 on the side but did say the total was bet down a half of tick from 42.5 to 42. Same exact story here in the NYC scene on the side and total.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-7.5, O/U 46.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this at Cowboys -7 and said early sharp support has come in on the Cowboys and he moved off the key # to 7.5. He said the total saw some Over support being bet up from the 45.5 opener to 46.5. Here on the NYC scene my local contact said the Cowboys have been a popular teaser bet with wiseguys and they moved the # off 7 up to 7.5 and wanted to go up to 9 but once they moved up to 7.5 they started seeing buy back on the dog and now have -115 juice attached to the Buccaneers at +7.5. He said it leaves them it a tough spot. The total has been bet up from 44 to 46.5 with Over support.

NY Jets @ Miami (+2.5, O/U 40)
My Vegas contact opened the Jets as a 3 point favorite on the road here but has been taking sharp money on the divisional home dog Dolphins here and moved this off the key # of 3 down to 2.5. Remember old school sharps love divisional home dogs in the NFL! Here in NYC the sharps wasted no time taking the Dolphins at some pretty big wagers moving this off of 3 and down to -2. Both sources said the Jets will be a popular bet on Sunday and you may see this number get back to 3 where sharps would likely hit it again. Here in NYC the total was bet down to 40.5 from the 41.5 opener with some Under support.

Detroit @ Tennessee (+3.5, O/U 47)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact opened this up at Lions-2.5 and had to move all the way through the key # of 3 to -3.5 and he said he expects plenty of Lions action on Sunday from the recreational bettors and said this line may keep moving. He also said depending on how high it gets he hopes and will need some sharps to jump in on the home dog. The total was bet down a half of tick from the 47.5 opener to 47. Here on the local NYC scene this opened Lions-3 and has been bet up to -3.5 come press time.

Philadelphia @ Arizona (+3.5, O/U 43)
My Vegas oddsmaker source told me he opened this at Eagles-4 and has since moved them down to -3.5 with a little support starting to come in on the Cardinals. The total was bet down a half of tick form 44 to 43.5. Here in NYC this opened at Eagles-4.5 and was bet down to Eagles-3.5 with strong support coming in on the dog here. Strong move on the Under which was bet down to 43 from a 46 opener.

Atlanta @ San Diego (-3.5, O/U 47.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source said he opened this at Chargers-3 (+100) and expected money to come in on the Falcons but he said it’s been all sharp money on the Chargers moving this up to 3 -120 juice attached and said if the sharp support keeps coming there is a chance he moves up to -3.5. The total was bet down a half of tick from the 48 opener to 47.5. Different story here in NYC as the Falcons opened a +3.5 point dog and sharp money took the hook moving this down 3 where now you can bet the Chargers with -120 juice attached. The total has been bet up from a 46 opener to 47.5 with Over support. You can see the clear difference between the way east and west coast bettors bet this game.

Pittsburgh @ Oakland (-4, O/U 44.5)
Out on the strip in Vegas my contact opened this at Steelers-4.5 and took some dog money moving this down to Raiders +4 but does expect plenty of Steelers money from recreational bettors at the book come Sunday and said this number might move back in the other direction. The total has been bet up a half of tick from 44 to 44.5. Same exact story on the side here in NYC. The total opened at 44 here and was bet down as low as 43 before settling at 44.5 come press time.

Houston @ Denver (+2.5, O/U 45.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at PK and it’s been all Texans money after a poor showing by Peyton Manning on Monday Night moving this line to Texans-2 come press time. He said the total opened at 46.5 and got as high as 47.5 before settling at 46 come press time. Here on the NYC scene this opened Texans-1 and has been bet up to Texans-2.5 come press time with support on the road favorite. The total opened at 46 and was bet up to 46.5 before settling at 45.5 come press time.

New England @ Baltimore (-3, O/U 49)
A huge Sunday Night football game as we get a rematch of last years AFC Championship game. My Vegas oddsmaker contact said he has nothing to report yet on the side or total of this game being quiet at 3 and 49. Here on the NYC scene my local bookie sources said they opened this at Ravens-3 with -115 juice attached and have seen a little Patriots support moving this to 3 with -120 juice attached to bet Brady and company. No early movement on the total.

Monday
Green Bay @ Seattle (+3, O/U 47)

Monday night the Packers make a trip up to the great Northwest to face Seattle and rookie QB Russell Wilson. My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this at 3.5 and sharp money came in on the Seahawks as the sharps took the hook moving this down to 3 where the love stopped. Nothing to report on the total. Here on the local NYC scene my local source said they opened the Seahawks at +4 and they were bet all the way down to +3 with dog support. At -3 he said he’s been all Packers support and now there is a -120 juice attached. The total opened at 46.5 was bet up a half of tick to 47 and has settled at 46.5 come press time.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one and my clients and I killed the books in NFL last weekend going 7-2 (78%) winners! Over the past couple of seasons I’ve went 75-46-3 (62%) my L/120 NFL Bets. It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Sunday and Monday night as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030

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