2012 NFL Week 13 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 13 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday
New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3.5, O/U 54)

On the Vegas strip my oddsmaker contact opened this at 4 and took some early Saints money but never moved through 3 and the hook where he currently sits. He said trust me if the sharps loved the Saints we would be down to +3 on this game already. The total has bounced between 55 and 56 all week at his shop. Here in NYC on the local underground scene we never moved off of 3.5 all week long and the total which opened at 55.5 has been bet down to 54.5 with some Under support.

Sunday
Arizona @ NY Jets (-4.5, O/U 37)

The Jets opened at 3.5 and the early move in the desert was on Gang Green as they moved this all the way up to 4.5 come press time. My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me no move on the total yet but better believe sharps will be playing close attention to the weather. Remember the pro bettors who bet totals are glued to weather reports this time of year because first indication of inclement weather they are betting the game Under. Here in NYC sharps bet the Jets all the way up to -4.5 from a -3 opener with no resistance or buy back on the dog yet. The total opened 38 and was bet down to 37 with some Under love.

Seattle @ Chicago (-3.5, O/U 38)
This game opened 4 and my Vegas oddsmaker source told me he took a little at 4 on the Seahawks but once he moved down to 3.5 the love stopped. He said if sharps loved the Seahawks that hook would be long gone. He said most sharps aren’t attracted to betting this Seattle team away from home. No move on the total yet to report but again this another game where sharps will be glued to the weather stations. This opened at 4 in NYC and we saw a move on Seattle who is now +3.5 with -115 juice attached. Not enough love to move down to the key # just yet. Total down half of tick from 38 to 37.5.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-6, O/U 45.5)
Nothing to report on the side or total early in the week on this game from out West. Here in NYC this opened at 6.5 and we are down to +6 with a little Jaguars support earlier in the week. The total has been bet up a half of tick from 45 to 45.5 come press time.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-7.5, O/U 46.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me he opened this at 9.5 in order to keep the Packers out of the teaser window but he ended up taking some sharp money on the dog after the Packers lackluster performance on Sunday night. They moved this down to +8 come press time. He said the total was bet down a half of tick from 47 to 46.5. Here in NYC this moved from 9 to 7.5 as books had the same strategy to protect the house from teasers and ended up taking dog money since sharps felt the number was inflated. Opposite of Vegas on the total which has been bet up from 46.5 to 47 come press time.

New England @ Miami (+9, O/U 51.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker contact disagreed with the sent out number on this game and felt that this line was too high even at 9 with books trying to protect from teasers. He opened this game at 7 and was bet up to 7.5 and said he’ll let the market move this game around. He had nothing to report on the total early in the week. Here in NYC no movement on side or total to report early in the week. Note NYC local shops are at 9 trying to keep New England out of the teaser window.

Carolina @ Kansas City (+3, O/U 40.5)
No action to report early in the week on the side from Vegas but my oddsmaker contact did tell me the total was bet down from 41.5 to 40.5. This opened -1 in in NYC and they quickly adjusted to -3 during the Monday Night game so they didn’t get pounced on with sharp money. Right now at 3 they are still waiting but have adjusted the juice to -115 on the Chiefs. Nothing early to report on the total.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (+7, O/U 40)
Nothing early to report from desert on this game so far. Books opened this at 9 early in the week here in NYC to protect themselves from teasers and took sharp money on the Rams moving this down as far as 6.5 before they saw resistance and sharp buy back on the favorite moving this up to 7.5. Total opened 41.5 and was bet down to 40.5 with some money coming in on the Under.

Houston @ Tennessee (+6, O/U 47)
My oddsmaker contact in Vegas opened this at 5 and initially took some dog money going down to 4.5 where he immediately saw a different group of sharps come in on Houston hard to beat the recreational betting public to the punch moving this number all the way up to -6. He said nothing early to report on the total. Similar story here in NYC where this game opened at 6.5 and went as low as 4.5 before seeing other money come in on the Texans pushing this back up to -6 come press time. The total opened at 48 and has been bet down to 47.

Indianapolis @ Detroit (-5, O/U 51)
This number has been dancing between -4 and -4.5 all week on the Vegas strip. My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me he’s taken sharp money on Detroit at -4 and sharp money on the Colts at +4.5 so he’s getting good two way action from the wiseguys. Nothing early to report on the total in this one. Here in NYC this opened at -3 and has shot all the way up to -5 with sharp support for the Lions and little to no resistance on the dog early. Total quiet at 51 all week.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-8, O/U 50)
My Vegas oddsmaker opened this at -6.5 because he felt the send out from the line consulting services was too high. He let the market push him up to -7 in this game with no buy back on the dog yet. Nothing to report on the total either. Here in NYC this opened at Denver-7 but books adjusted up to -9 to try to keep the Broncos out of the teaser window from sharps.They saw a strong move toward the Under as this number was bet down to 49.5 from a 51.5 opener.

Cincinnati @ San Diego (+1, O/U 46.5)
In Vegas my oddsmaker contact put out a test line with low limits of San Diego-1.5 and saw all sharp money come in on the Bengals so when he reopened the line he opened the Bengals at -1.5 and has watched the line climb toward -2. He doesn’t think it gets as far as closing on the key # of 3. He said if it did hit 3 he would anticipate some sharps tyring to shoot a middle and he doesn’t want that. Nothing early to report on the total. Here in NYC we watched the Chargers open-1 and flip flop positions as early sharp money came in on the Bengals moving this line to up to Bengals -1.5. The total opened at 48 and has been bet down to 46.5 with a move to the Under.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-10, O/U 43)
My Las Vegas oddsmaker source opened this Dallas-9 and took some early sharp money on the favorite but said once he got to -10 the love stopped on the Cowboys. He also said sharps seem to have no interest in buying in on the struggling dog at +10. Nothing early to report on the total. Nothing early on the side or total on this Sunday night game in NYC as it has stayed quiet early in the week.

Monday
NY Giants @ Washington (+2.5, O/U 51)

Nothing to report early in the week from Vegas or NYC on the side or total of this game.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. We’ve been beating up on the books all year in NFL and We’ve won 94-58-3 (62%) NFL run since the 2010 Playoffs delivering long term success! It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030

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