2012 NFL Week 10 Smart Money Report

My weekly blog special the “Smart Money Report” Week 10 edition is here to help you guys out. Make sure to check here every Thursday during NFL season as I utilize all my sharps aka professional bettor contacts, Las Vegas Oddsmaker contacts, and NYC bookies to give you the info on what’s happening behind the counter in the NFL betting marketplace with every game on the board.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before kick off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

It’s important to realize that every early sharp move isn’t them holding on to that position. Sometime it’s head fake money which is sharps moving a line in order to get a more favorable number on game day betting the other side.

Thursday
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+3, O/U 42)

My Vegas oddsmaker source opened this up at 3.5 and initially took sharp money on the dog and went down to 3 but he has seen a lot of public money coming in on the Colts and has since moved back up to 3.5. He said he needed his antacid pills last Sunday in what he said was the worst day he’s seen for a sportsbook in Vegas in his 25 years behind the counter. He had nothing early to report on the total. In NYC my local bookie contact told me they opened 4 and were bet down to 3 with sharp money and now have attached -125 juice to bet the Colts. The total opened up at 43 and was bet down to 42.5. He did say he feels recreational bettors will be heavy on the Colts but he thinks the Jags win this outright and spoil the night.

Sunday
Oakland @ Baltimore (-9, O/U 46)

My Vegas contact opened 7 and has been bet up to 7.5 and said he didn’t see any resistance coming in for the dog just yet. He had nothing early to report on the total. In NYC my local contact said they didn’t play around and opened this up at 9 keeping the Ravens out of the teaser window. He said the total opened at 46 and was bet up to 47 before settling at 46.5 come press time.

San Diego @ Tampa Bay (-3, O/U 48)
Out in the desert this opened at 2.5 and was bet up to 3 with sharps taking the Bucs at anything under a field goal. He said the total was bet down a half of tick from 48 to 47.5. Here in NYC my local source told me all is quiet on the side at 3 all week. They opened and never moved off the key number. He said the total opened at 48.5 and got as low as 47.5 before settling at 48 come press time.

Tennessee @ Miami (-6, O/U 44)
Nothing at all onside or total to report on this game from Vegas early in the week. Only thing my local NYC bookie source said was the total was bet up a half of tick from 43.5 to 44.

NY Giants @ Cincinnati (+4, O/U 48)
Vegas bookie source told me a strong move on the Bengals here who opened at +6 were bet all the way down to +4 come press time. He did say he took some sharp bets on that side but heard that some books in the industry were moving this game on air which basically means that didn’t take any sharp wagers on the side but were piggybacking other books moving this line. Here in NYC my local bookie source said without hesitation big Bengals bets came in at +6 as soon as they opened the number. Other sharps tailed the initial move and this is down to 4 at press time. Total bet up half of tick from 47.5 to 48.

Denver @ Carolina (+4, O/U 47)
Out in the desert there was strong sentiment on the home dog. He opened this line at 5.5 and sharps bet into the dead number and have moved this all the way down to 3.5 at all his properties as we go to press with this blog. He said the total was bet down a half of tick from 48 to 47.5. Same on the east coast as sharps gobbled up this +6 quickly and this is down to +4 everywhere you look at our local underground shops. Same exact story on the total.

Buffalo @ New England (-11, O/U 52)
Early move was to take the Bills at +12 and my Vegas source said sharps have bet this down to 11 taking the dog. The total was bet up from 51 to 52 with some support coming in on the Over. In NYC this opened at 11.5 and sharps did take the hook with the Bills but they said once this hit 11 it seems the love stopped. Total was bet up a half of tick from 51 to 51.5.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (+1, O/U 53.5)
Out on the Vegas strip my contact told me he opened this at -1.5 and took Atlanta money moving this up to -3 where he saw resistance and sharps came in big on the Saints at +3. He said he is glad how it worked out because the public will likely be on the Falcons big and he needed some money on the dog to balance the money out. Total was bet down a half of tick from 54 to 53.5. In NYC nothing to report on the side. Maybe sharps are waiting to see if they can get a better # on game day according to my local source. Remember old school guys love divisional home dogs in the NFL. He did say they took some money on the Under moving this down to 53 from a 54 opener.

NY Jets @ Seattle (-6, O/U 38.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source said he didn’t see any early Jets money enter the marketplace and he moved this from -6 to -6.5 and still hasn’t seen any sharps bite on the dog in this spot. He had nothing to report on the total. Here in NYC it opened at 6 and once the # did reach 6.5 there was resistance and money came in on the Jets. Total was bet down from 39.5 to 38.5 with a move toward the Under.

St.Louis @ San Francisco (-11, O/U 38.5)
My Vegas oddsmaker source told me he opened this at 12 and that generated slight interest on the dog but moving to 11.5 there hasn’t been any interest from sharps. He said maybe they get involved again if the line jumps up later in the week or on Sunday and see if they can grab the best possible #. Here in NYC this opened at 11.5 and they did scoop up the hook but at 11 all has been quiet. He said the total opened at 38 and was bet up to 39 before settling back at 38 come press time.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-1, O/U 44.5)
One of the strongest moves of the week as my Vegas source said it’s been Anti-Philly money on this game since he opened. This opened Eagles-2.5 and has been bet to Dallas-1.5 come press time as sharps finally have jumped off the Eagles bandwagon. He said the total was bet down a half of tick from 45 to 44.5 come press time. Here in NYC Philly opened -1 but roles have reversed as early Dallas money has pushed them to a 1 point favorite. The total opened at 46 and was bet down to 45 with early Under support.

Houston @ Chicago (-1, O/U 41)
Out on the Vegas strip the sharps like the Texans in this spot taking the points. The line opened -2.5 at his shop and is down to -1 come press time. So sharps feel the Texans are the better team in their eyes since they are willing to take the Texans under the key # of 3 on the road here. He said the total was bet down a half of tick from 42 to 41.5. Strong move at +3 on the Texans here in NYC and books adjusted quickly to +1 and all has been quiet. Strong move toward the Under at our local shops being bet down to 41.5 from a 43.5 opener.

Monday
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-12, O/U 42)

This opened 13 at my Vegas oddsmaker contacts shop and he said some sharp action came in on the dog but once he moved off the key # of 13 to 12.5 all the love stopped. He had nothing to report on the total early. In NYC this line has bounced between 11.5 and 13 all week long with sharp opinion varying on either side depending on the # available. The total has been bet down half a tick from 43 to 42.5.

Sometimes I agree with these early moves and sometimes I don’t. One thing I can say in my opinion has been a strong one. We’ve won 89-55-3 (63%) NFL run since the 2010 Playoffs delivering long term success! It’s good to have a guy like me by your side come Sunday to help utilize my contacts to make us money on some diamonds in the rough. Hop on board with me this Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night as I look to exploit the marketplace with the help of my contacts. You can pick up my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030

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