This is how my SEC West power rankings shape up heading into the 2010/2011 NCAA-FB season. They have been a major part of my success in the past when handicapping college football games. This isn't my projection of how the season will play out, many issues such as home/away schedule, injuries, etc. can factor in with that. This is simply my strength on paper associated by my power ranking numbers with each team.
SEC West
1.Arkansas- On paper Bobby Petrino has the strongest team in the SEC West heading into this season. Ryan Mallet who finished 2009 with 30 touchdown passes and 3,624 yards returns all five of his top receivers from a year ago led by Greg Childs. This is one of the deepest receiving corps in college football this season. Mallet will be protected by an experienced offensive line that combines for 90 career starts so his uniform should stay rather clean this season. The combo in the backfield of Ronnie Wingo and Broderick Green is not to be overlooked. Look for these two to combine for well over 1,000 yards on the season and over 15 combined touchdowns this year. On the defensive side of the ball they bring back a solid front seven that is returning their #1 and # 3 leading tacklers and their #1 sack guy (DE-Jake Bequette). Also they bring back all the key members of their secondary and I look for the secondary to become a focal point this year after being a weakness in 2009. They will have one of the most potent offenses in football, an improved defense, the most returning starters in the SEC, and third year under Petrino's system. The Razorbacks could shock some people this year.
2.Auburn- Everything will shape up around how QB Cameron Newton plays, he will literally make or break their season. Newton was originally expected to be Tebow's predecessor at Florida before transferring to Auburn. He'll have one of the best offensive lines in football protecting him and we all know it all starts up front. The running game does lose Ben Tate but I think Mario Fannin and Onterio McCalebb should fill the void rather quickly. The receiving corps is very talented and now with a reliable QB under center I would expect their numbers to rise dramatically. The defense returns their top five tacklers from last year and they also tout an experienced defensive backfield that is dangerous. They should also have one of the top special teams units in football this year. I think we saw glimpses in that near upset of Alabama last year of what could be. Look for Auburn to get a double digit win season in year number two under Chizik.
3.Alabama- The Crimson Tide are the defending National Title Champions and spent almost all of last year on top of my power rankings, but they have slipped a bit this year. The offense is going to be even more dangerous with a healthy Julio Jones, Mark Ingram back after winning the Heisman, and Greg McElroy who has yet to lose a game as starter in HS or college. There is no doubt Alabama can top last seasons 32 PPG they averaged. I actually think they are going to have too in order to think of any kind of repeat performance. My main concern is that last year the defense was really the reason they went 14-0 and won the title. This year too many big names like Rolando McClain, Javier Arenas, Corey Reamer, and Terrence Cody to name a few are gone. They held opponents to 11.7 PPG last year, and we all know the recipe for success of covering point spreads is a tough defense to go with the solid offense. This unit will drop a few notches due to many new faces. Their kicking game may be a liability as well. Expect Bama to be in more high scoring close shootouts this season as their defensive anchor to count on is no longer around.
4.LSU- I think Jordan Jefferson has all the tools and potential to have a break out season, what worries me is the surrounding pieces to the puzzle. Their running game is a major question mark, and if you can't run you can't win in the SEC. Their top returning rusher from last year is Russell Shepard who is a wide receiver. This group is very inexperienced and they have a offensive line that is average at best blocking for them. Jefferson has Terrence Toliver to target who returns after catching 53 receptions for over 700 yards last year. Somebody else is going to have to step up to compliment Toliver in the receiver corps, and it very well could be sophomore phenom Reuben Randle or Russell Shepard. The defensive line is not as good as some of the lines the Tigers have put out in the past. The linebacker group is led by All-American candidate Kelvin Sheppard. LSU should be very tough against the pass with one of the top secondaries in the SEC. Their success depends on how the LSU running game takes form.
5.Mississippi State- Between Tyson Lee and a young Chris Relf last year the Bulldogs struggled passing the ball and I think things can only get better this year. Relf has some experience under his belt now and is a dual threat running the ball as well. He has a more experienced receiver corps to work with which should flourish in the second year of Dan Mullen's spread system. My major concern is replacing Anthony Dixon at running back. If the Bulldogs can't run the ball and control the clock they could be in for another losing season. They have an underrated front seven and I think they are going to have their best numbers against the run in over three years. The defensive backfield contains three very talented underclassman with starting experience from last year. I expect this defense to keep them in games and I'd expect it to help them cover some large spreads this season. MSU will not reach a bowl game without a running game but the defense should be a good bet to cover big spreads and cash some "Under" tickets in low scoring games this year.
6.Mississippi- This is contingent on what happens with ex-Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli. Regardless of his off the field issues, the kid can play football and can make an impact on the field. So if Masoli walks on and finds his way under center at some point this year, Ole Miss can very easily rise in my rankings and make a bowl. Nathan Stanley is inexperienced behind center and it could end up showing by the time big games in October and November swing around. What scares me for Stanley's sake is the fact this offensive line is very raw and inexperienced. We all know an inexperienced line and inexperienced QB can be a recipe for disaster. If this group was a little more experienced I'd call for Brandon Bolden to have a 1,000 yard season but I'd bet the under on that one for now. They lose Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster at receiver which seems devastating but I think Pat Patterson and Marketih Summers can put up some good numbers replacing them. Defensively I think the Rebels shape up very nicely. Their front seven should be very tough to move the ball against and the secondary is average but I think their numbers may look bolstered because of the strength of the front seven. If Masoli suits up and makes an impact things can get interesting in Oxford but we all remember the high expectations from last year and how they flopped. This team is only a fraction as talented as that team was.
By: Chris Torrisi
It's never too early for sports books to start pushing the NFL, and in the past week books have started to unleash their lines for week one games. Many people wonder why would I want to bet on a NFL game in May and have my money tied up until September. It's true that sharps aka professional bettors do not engage or "steam" these lines that are so far off in the distance. But at the same token they do invest their money in them if they see a number they see as being cheap and worth the investment.
If a key player gets injured on a team they bet on in May, they can simply hedge their bet by betting the other side with a bigger amount closer to the kick off of the season. You have to remember that sportsbooks put a limit on the amount you can wager on these games, so sharps are not betting their normal bet size on these numbers so you will not see the numbers fluctuate too much. Many recreational players do not bet games until the game day just a few hours before kick off, and books know recreational bettors do not want a ticket sitting in their back pocket for three months, so these opening week lines are geared more toward the serious bettor.
These lines are very useful to handicappers and sharp bettors because you can start to get a gauge on the power ratings oddsmakers have assessed teams for the upcoming season. Remember oddsmakers give three points in the line to the home team automatically, so if you a home team at -3 that means oddsmakers power ratings have both teams dead even.
We'll glance over every game and I will give you my take on which ones you may want to invest in and which games you may want to avoid.
Minnesota at New Orleans (-5, O/U 51)
A lot on this game depends on Brett Farve's return status which remains uncertain since it has not been confirmed 100% yet. Sources are saying it is likely he will return, but if he does not return and you grab this number at -5 today you will be getting a very conservative number that will not be around come week one. If you buy into to it today and he does return, you have the opportunity to hedge your bet and take the points with the Vikings if you feel they can hang with New Orleans.
Carolina at NY Giants (-7, O/U 40)
You may want to look at the under this game here, that is with the expectations of the Giants defense improving coming into the season, and the expectations that the Panthers are in rebuilding mode, and their offense is a question mark. Otherwise wait on this game until August to get a better grasp on what both teams look like in preseason. I'd be in no hurry to invest in this game in May.
Miami (-1, O/U 37.5) at Buffalo
You may consider this number kind of cheap with the expectations that the Dolphins should be improved with the addition of Brandon Marshall, a healthy Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and the Wildcat threat, but you have to remember their defense was ranked 25th in the league in 2009. Backing a bad defensive road favorite has is a no-no as any sharp will tell you. But if you trust Miami you may want to grab it now at the cheap price.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-1, O/U 40.5)
Keep a very close eye on this line because I think this is a cheap number to get Pittsburgh at. Byron Leftwhich ran with the ones all week in OTA's with very good results from what I've read. This maybe a big swing on this number due to the fact of the Big Ben suspension. You can take Pittsburgh now at the cheap -1 price, and if the public bets heavy on Atlanta on game day, you may be able to get Pittsburgh as a small dog and bet it again. My advice take the Steelers now, and if the QB situation does no pan out you can always hedge it later.
Detroit at Chicago (-7, O/U 42)
Matt Stafford in year number two should make strides, and I have some expectations of seeing him come into form since he should be more familiar with the offensive system in his second season. I'd take Detroit here getting a touchdown against a divisional rival, and if things are not shaping up for Detroit come August, you can always hedge your bet. Remember Chicago does not blow teams out, and this early in the season you see games a lot closer in scoring margins as teams are still getting into their groove.
Cincinnati at New England (-5.5, O/U 43.5)
This is simple if you like New England bet it now because you are getting them under the key number of 7, if you like the Bengals wait until game day because it is sure this line will be 7 or higher by kick off.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1, O/U 37)
Pass. Oddsmakers are suggesting that the Browns are two points better than Tampa Bay in their power ratings heading into 2010 is about all I read from this game. Do not tie up your money for 3 months on this game which will likely even be a dud on game day for sharp bettors.
Denver at Jacksonville (-1, O/U 41.5)
You may want to consider that you are getting a home team laying under a Field Goal here but I would not tie up my money on either side of this game until I get a feel of how they look in camp. I'd pass this one out until August/September.
Indianapolis (-3, O/U 47) at Houston
The Texans were showing life at times in 2010 as being a team that has playoff caliber. They are a young team on the rise and should be even better this year. Knee jerk reaction is take the divisional home dog getting the field goal. Take Houston 3.
Oakland at Tennessee (-7, O/U 41)
Jason Campbell may flourish under center for Oakland and I would advise taking the seven points with Oakland now, because even by game day I expect sharps to back Oakland getting the touchdown in this spot. You may also think this total is a little low considering a vulnerable Titans secondary and a Raiders run defense that was flawed a year ago.
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-1, O/U 45.5)
This is a pretty simple philosophy, if you like Philly bet 'em now laying under the key number of 3. If you like Green Bay you may want to wait to see if you get a better number on game day. Also think, September in Philly should be warm weather, and this game features two of the more potent offenses in the NFC. The line sits under the key number of 48, so the over may be worth a look.
San Francisco at Seattle (-1, O/U 38)
I think there is too much respect here for Seattle and would not be surprised to see San Francisco as the favorite by kick off. Letting history be the judge, NFL coaches in their first home game with their new team usually struggle to cover the spread in that situation over the years. Take the Niners.
Arizona (-3.5, O/U 42) at St. Louis
Laying more than a field goal on the road with Matt Leinart? I'd watch this number all summer, if it drops to 3 take St.Louis right away. Otherwise wait until later in the Summer and watch the number rise to 4 or higher. The Rams in their second year under Spag could make a big improvement and Arizona is caught in a bad spot with an unproven QB here on the road. You may want to wait to see how Leinart looks throughout the summer but you could always hedge the other way if you have to on game day.
Dallas (-3, O/U 42) at Washington
This will be the unveiling of McNabb and Mike Shanahan. Knee jerk reaction is take the divisional home dog in the primetime Sunday Night game but remember that coaches in their first home game with their new team usually struggle to cover the spread in that situation over the years. But I'd still lean Washington now at 3.
Baltimore at NY Jets (-3, O/U 37.5)
We are seeing the key number of 37 here and we are a half of point above that number at 37.5. Two great defensive teams, I'd take the under now because this number will be at 37 or lower by kick off. As far as a side it's a tough call. Pundits are calling for the Jets to be in serious running for the AFC title and more, but I think we may see a sophomore slump from Rex Ryan and company. Oddsmakers have these teams pegged dead even in their power ratings. This Monday night game will be the heaviest bet game of the weekend.
San Diego (-5.5, O/U 44.5) at Kansas City
Knee jerk is take the divisional home dog getting over a field goal this spot. The Chargers never come out of the gates looking dominant and I do not trust them laying over a FG in this spot.
By: Chris Torrisi
Betting interleague baseball has been one of the most profitable spans of the baseball season for me over the years. It brings some life into the sportsbooks offshore and in Nevada, which in turn creates some value for us professional bettors. We do not get the value of the betting public investing into the lines as they do in other sports such as basketball or football over the span of the season but Interleague play and the playoffs draws some public interest.
The novice betting public will usually look to bet the game on ESPN or back the big name pitcher they are familiar with, which us sharps can fade and make some nice money going the other way during the interleague span. Over the past few years it has been validated that the American League holds the edge over the National League during Interleague play.
Many sharp bettors have caught on, the betting public is starting to catch on too now, but worst of all the oddsmakers caught on long before anybody. So betting on an American League Ace pitcher such as Andy Pettite, you are going to pay an extra 10 to 20 cents as to what the "true line" should be. They know sharps would take full advantage of betting an American League Ace against a National League team, so they have to add a premium to try to keep they away from betting on those games.
Sharps do not like to lay over -150 as a general rule, so for instance you may see an American League Ace getting a -160 price, but oddsmakers have added their 20 cents premium to the line, when in reality he should be only a -140 favorite. Sharps will generally stay away, and the betting public will lay the number with the premium, but oddsmakers are fine with that because they know over the long haul the betting public is not going to turn a profit. It's the fact they do not want the sharps pounding them for the duration of Interleague play.
There are ways around the system to still bet American League teams at a "fair" price though. Look to invest in American League starters from the back end of the rotation, the number three, four, and five guys in the rotation. They will be priced much cheaper compared to an ace, and for the most part these guys still dominate the National League batters. You want to especially look to back them in home games where you can expect to catch them laying more true to value numbers and where they are in a comfortable setting at home.
Look at history because it does not lie, look at a team like the Colorado Rockies, they have been historically a money burner during Interleague play over the years. Try to catch one of their front of the rotation starters as favorite and go the opposite way if all your handicapping variables add up. Teams like the Tigers and Angels have always been very solid in Interleague play and usually make a smart investment. The Angels play a National League style of "small ball" and they usually have a pitching and hitting advantage, which gives them a nice edge if you catch them at a cheap price or a dog. Teams like the Angels or Tigers will be much more fairly priced than American League powerhouses like the Yankees and Red Sox, where you will not catch a valuable number.
An American League team with a starting staff as hot as the Devil Rays will usually dominate even the best of National League line ups they face, and if you see them at a cheap number they can be a strong investment. A high powered American League offense like the Texas Rangers will usually rock mediocre and weak National League pitching staffs. Making them a positive investment or even making the over a good look.
Do not get be scared to invest in National League teams though . Sometimes you may find a National League pitcher that has pitched in the American League before in his career, examples are guys like Roy Halladay,Johan Santana, or even much lesser known hurlers like Ian Kennedy. These guys have a lot of experience against American League hitters. Find a pitcher that historically pitches well against American League teams during Interleague play, an example is Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins, who is 6-2 lifetime against the Junior Circuit. Try to invest in a National League team that is at home and against a pitcher from the American League who is making his first career start in that ballpark. This really works well if the pitcher has been struggling in away games during the season.
There are plenty of ways to conquer the books during Interleague play, sometimes it just takes a little extra homework and preparation, but there is plenty of value to be found. Best of luck during these next few weeks and think smart before buying into teams to bet on.
Written By: Chris Torrisi
When betting totals in the NBA playoffs, a favorite strategy of mine is betting Unders in the right circumstances. Those circumstances are betting the under in the the Finals and Game Six and Game Seven of a playoff series. I like to target the Under in these situations because both teams look to control the pace and play a slower and defensive minded style of game. Every possession in these big games is extremely critical. They also tend to be more physical and the refs let the guys play, so you do not get as many free throw attempts which kill Unders.
The Finals have been profitable for Under bettors over the years. Last year the Under cashed in four of the five games between the Lakers and Magic. The four Unders that cashed stayed under the posted total by an average of 14.8 points. Talk about a no sweat bet!
In the 2007-2008 Finals between the Celtics and Lakers the Over/Under split an even 3-3. In the 2006-2007 Finals between the Cavs and Spurs the Under cashed in three of the four games. The three Unders that cashed in that series stayed below the posted total by an average of 19.1 points! The Under is 10-5 (67%) in the NBA Finals over the past three seasons.
The same goes when betting games 6 and 7 of a playoff series. Last year in round one all of the series that made it to Game Six and Game Seven the Under was 4-2. In the Conference semifinals the Celtics/magic and Rockets/Lakers were the only ones to make it to game six and game seven, the Under was 4-0 in those games. In the Conference Finals both series reached game six and the Over cashed in both of those games.
Overall in 2008-2009 if you bet the Under in Game Six and Seven of every series, and bet the Under throughout the NBA finals you would have won 71% of the time, cashing on the Under in 12 of 17 bets! Think Under not Over late in a series and during the Finals! Best of luck this NBA playoffs guys!
By:Larry Josephson
The opening round of the NBA playoffs is all about getting rid of teams which have no chance of winning the title. Teams with enough talent to get to The Finals hope to expend as little energy as possible in the opening round to have strong-enough legs against tougher opponents down the line. Offenses work to exploit mismatches and coaches need time to make defensive adjustments. Teams which got smoked by their first-round opponent during the regular season (for example, Miami was 0-3 vs. Bostron during the regular season) might vary their defensive sets in the first round. Lots of variables are at work. Last season oddsmakers got nailed when the Over cahsed in 7 of the 8 opening games of the first round.
Written By: Chris Torrisi
An abounding number of novice Major League Baseball bettors make the same mistake of not capitalizing on young pitching prospects in their first few starts up from the minors. This is usually because they are unfamiliar with these young hurlers.
Young pitching prospects will be installed as underdogs with nice payouts in most cases for their first few starts. In the right circumstances we are able to capitalize on the value because the betting public is still behind the curve, and oddsmakers don't have to adjust their Money Lines yet.
In no particular order I will breakdown 10 young pitching prospects that I think will have some value when they get their shot this year.
1.Aroldis Chapman 6-4/180 LHP Cincinnati Reds: This 22 year old Cuban ace just inked a six year 30 million dollar deal and will receive one million of that contract in 2010. He is going through culture shock after defecting from Cuba earlier this year and will likely start the 2010 season in the minors, he was also dealing with some back spasm issues late in camp.
He is so talented you may see him in a Reds uniform by May. The only flaw scouts can find is working on a slightly smoother delivery, but everything else is already there for him. Numerous reports have him being clocked over 100 MPH this spring, that is nothing new since he was clocked at 102 MPH in the World Baseball Classic last year.
In Cuba he touted a 3.74 ERA, 10.02 strike outs per nine innings, and limited opponents to a .227 batting average. In 8 2/3 innings in spring he 12 struck out 12 of the 35 batters he faced while allowing just one earned run with a 1.04 ERA. The upside on Chapman is scary, he has a fastball in the that regularly registers 97-100 MPH on radar guns, a 86-88 MPH slider, and a lights out change up in the low 80's.
2. Jamie Garcia 6-2/200 LHP St.Louis Cardinals: Garcia earned his spot as the number 5 man on the Cardinals rotation after a brilliant spring. Garcia has compiled a 1.42 ERA 13/5 K/BB ratio in 12 2/3 innings, remarkable stats for a such young prospect. He spent time with the Cardinals in 2008 as a relief pitcher, he eventually had Tommy John surgery and has recovered nicely with no issues. Garcia returned from surgery during the mid 2009 season starting in 9 games total between the Rookie League and AAA, compiling a 2.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP
His fastball sits in the 87-93 range and has nice sink to it. He also has a very effective curveball to work with. Garcia will be a very under the radar and profitable choice for bettors if he continues to pitch with the same confidence and stuff he did in spring training.
3.Stephen Strasburg 6-4/220 RHP Washington Nationals: He is the most heralded and "on the radar" of all these prospects due to all the media attention, so I'm not sure we'll get much value when he debuts; but the fact he is on one the worst teams in the league gives us hope.
The Nationals recently informed Strasburg that he will begin the year in Class AA Harrisburg, so we'll have to wait on his debut for the time being, which will surely be sometime this year. It has nothing to with him not being ready because this is purely a business decision. The Nationals will save millions by keeping Strasburg in the minors to begin the regular season. So we will not see him until late May or early June.
Strasburg's spring training was amazing, he allowed two runs in nine innings, striking out 12 batters with one walk. In the Arizona Fall League he had a 4-1 record, 4.26 ERA, and a 23 to seven strike out to walk ratio in 19 innings of work. He has a fastball that sits in the 95-97 range, and his four-seam fastball is his go to pitch.
He is a strong ground-ball pitcher due to his solid two-seam which hits radars in the low to mid 90's. Strausburg compliments this with a nasty curveball with sharp movement in the low 80's, and a tough to hit changeup. He is about as ready as any of these prospects, and his upside is through the roof.
4.Brian Matusz:6-5/220 LHP Baltimore Orioles: I am starting hear the Cole Hamels comparisons lately when I hear the name Brain Matusz. Some even say he already has a better fastball than Hamels. He is definitely a sleeper due to being on a perennial loser like Baltimore, but he has a bright future ahead of him with the O's
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His name may ring a bell because last year he made his debut with Baltimore. In 8 starts with the Orioles in 2009 he was 5-2, with a 4.63 ERA, and a 38/14 strike out to walk ratio. He is the future ace of this staff without a doubt, and at 23 years old is very mature on the hill. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but has been clocked as high as 94 at times.
His curveball sweeps very aggressively, and is difficult for left handed batters to create contact against. Scouts say his slider is also above average, so this kid has an arsenal to work with.He has solid control and is going to give sharp bettors nice value this year before the public catches on. He has a realistic shot of winning the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year Award.
5.Brad Lincoln 6-4/210 RHP Pittsburgh Pirates : He will be starting the season at Triple-A Indianapolis but I would expect to see him in a Pirates uniform later this year. He has bounced back from Tommy John surgery with a nice recovery. Here's a case of a solid young prospect on a bad team, but that equals a nice money line dog, because the average bettor will have no clue who he is. The average bettor also doesn't like backing bad teams like Pittsburgh much either so I think we will get really great two to one value when he debuts.
Pirates fans had high expectations of Lincoln, who was the Pirates top overall pick in the 2006 draft. He has a good moving fastball which sits in the mid-90’s as well as a hard breaking curveball. Last year he dominated between Double A-Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis with a 3.37 ERA, 107 strike outs and 28 walks in 135.1 innings, with a solid 1.19 whip in 25 starts.
Bettors need to be familiar with Lincoln because he will be the first guy called up if there are any early injuries or struggles in the Pirates rotation. Lincoln was ranked a Top 5 prospect by many scouts before the injury.
6.Jeremy Hellickson 6-1/185 RHP Tampa Bay Devil Rays: After going a combined 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, 132/29 strike out to walk ratio, and 0.88 WHIP between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham, Hellickson won the organization's pitcher of the year award in 2009.
The 22-year-old right-hander won't crack the rotation this spring, but I think he will be debuting in Rays uniform later this year. He has astounded many this spring training with solid outing after outing. The only chance I got too see him was against the Yankees and he was rock solid. He struck out Derek Jeter on a nasty curveball, got Curtis Granderson out on a grounder back to the mound, and struck out Mark Teixeira. I was very impressed at his calmness on the hill to say the least.
He has great command on his fastball in the low 90's and an excellent changeup. The organization raves about him and you may see him in August or sooner as he continues to mature in Triple-A.
7.Wade Davis 6/5 220 Tampa Bay Devil Rays: This is the pitching prospect Rays fans have to be excited about right away. You may remember him from last season with the Rays. In 6 starts when called up from the minors he had a 3.72 ERA, a 36/13 strike out to walk ratio, and only gave up 2 homers. Also note his only two losses last year were to the Red Sox and Yankees.
Davis will be the number five starter in rays rotation as they move Andy Sonnanstine to the bullpen to start the 2010 campaign. He is ranked as a Top 10 prospect this year out of all the rookies in the league.Scouts love his competitiveness and poise on the hill, which has all the makings of a profitable young hurler for bettors. His 4-seam fastball sits in the mid-90s to go along with a hard curveball that he commands well. He also mixes in a tough to hit change up and a nice cutter.
8.Christian Frierdrich 6-4/185 LHP Colorado Rockies: Remember the name because he can be up early as August, if not sooner. Rockies have been taking their time with him, but the way things are panning out he may be pitching the day after Ubaldo Jiminez as the Rockies number 2 starter in 2011.
He logged 119.2 innings in Single-A last year, while amassing a 2.41 ERA, with a 159/43 strike out to walk ratio. He has a 90-94 MPH fastball and strong left handed breaking ball. He is the southpaw of the future in the Rockies system right now. if he doesn't crack the majors this year, he is going to make big news in 2011.
9.Dan Hudson 6-3 225 RHP Chicago White Sox- Hudson is one of the few pitchers in recent memory that made their Single A debut and major-league debut in the same season. He dominated through his farm system climb last year as the White Sox top pitching prospect, going a combined 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP in stops at Class A Kannapolis, A Winston-Salem, AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte.
He joined the Sox in September and looked good with a 1-1 record, and a 3.38 ERA in six games. He did start in two of those six appearances. I have to also note he held batters to a .225 average, which is impressive for the fact he pitches in hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field.
Hudson has been optioned to Triple-A Charlotte after battling to make it on a very talented White Sox in 2010. We haven't seen the last of Hudson, so bettors keep your eyes peeled for him when he returns this year because Ozzie Guillen and the Pale Hose organization loves him.
10. Also keep your eyes on the Texas Rangers Neftali Feliz and the New York Mets Jenrry Meija who will both be starting the year as relievers.
Meija has a very good chance of starting at some point this year due to the Mets questionable rotation and injury prone guys like John Maine. Give either of these guys a good look if they happen to start this year.
Many bettors actually have losing records and give up a nice chunk of change to books come Tournament time. Many bettors don't begin to bet NCAA basketball until football season is over and conference play has already begun. As professional handicappers we are capping games from the very first tip off of the season and get a good idea of teams non-conference stability in their pre-conference schedule.
This creates a challenge for bettors who have 32 non-conference first round games to handicap and 16 in the second round to choose from when they are used to betting conference games only. So the average bettor doesn't find the Cinderella as a professional will simply because they will back the more popular team in these rounds that they are familiar with from seeing them on national television etc. These first two rounds are easy to make some nice profits early in the tournament due to the amount of games if you come at them from the right angle.
Before even filling brackets or picking a "future winner" or just regular handicapping here is some stats to know. The past seven years the team who has won the championship game has 1.)Won at least 10 consecutive games in a row during the season 2.)Defeated their opponents by 10 or more points per game on average throughout the season and 3.)Had at least a .500 record or better in true road games.
Here are some keys to look at. Let's take history for instance. Look at the past 3 years history, since most the starters on these teams have at least 1-3 years experience playing at the college level. You have to remember most of these guys are 18-22 years old and this is a huge experience. Has this team been to the Tournament in the past 3 years? This is very important, if a team has a few key players who already have experience in the tournament they will help guide some of the younger players through these games.
A team with no players who have ever played in the Big Dance tend to be much more jittery and mistake prone in these big games. Especially early on and may bury themselves in a hole they can't get out of. History of coaches is very important. Study how his team has done ATS in the Tournament in his career. Especially for your teams seeds 9 and higher. If he has pulled some upsets in past tournaments or done very well ATS he has a much better idea of how to prepare players for these big games.
Let's look at some other key points. Teams who were Cinderella's in their conference tournament who had to win from round 1 all the way to the championship are usually winded by opening round of the Big Dance and have run out of gas, given the right circumstances and matchup they are an excellent team to fade.
Look to fade teams who have struggled down the finishing stretch of the season. Losing 6 or more of their past 10 games. These are usually you're bigger conference teams and due to strength of schedule and their success earlier in the season got them a bid.
These teams fall victim quite often. Rebounding,rebounding, rebounding and I cant stress it enough. If a team is good on the defensive boards they give other teams very few second look opportunities which is a great statistical angle.
They force teams to make the most of each and every possession and are usually the grittier teams in the Tournament. If they themselves are good offensive rebounders than that's a double bonus!
Teams with good defensive stats are key. Defense is what gets teams through this Tournament. A lot of people will back a team who is known for racking up points and gets shocked when they couldn't cover or lost because they can't play D. Interior defense is critical. You want to watch out for teams who give up a lot of easy baskets in the paint.
Free throw shooting % is huge fellas!!! If a favorite can't hit free throws they struggle covering spreads in the Big Dance. Teams get nervous and will foul if facing a margin with 2 minutes or less remaining facing elimination and hoping to slow the game down. These teams who can't convert from the charity stripe will burn you.
Especially look into how both of their guards(especially PG) shoots from the line since they will be the ones handling the ball down the stretch. Look for low seed teams (1-4) who are very physical in the paint and get a lot of production from forwards and centers that are facing a physically much smaller team with no solid interior players. These teams tend to pound the rock in the paint and cover the large chalk that has been handed to them.
Money management is key. If you have a bad day don't try to play catch up the next day. Slow, steady, and pace yourself. Look at March Madness as a season in it's own. You have 65 teams to choose from and can make a nice profit if you don't get caught up in the catchup game. Just ride through as it if were any other regular season plays.
Don't get caught in the hype of it all fellas. Tend not to listen to any of what these Major T.V. commentators and newspapers are saying. Be your own media guide, the stats are all there for you to take advantage of. Best of luck and crush your books.
I wanted to share a few inside tips I've been using when handicapping bowl games over the past decade. Sure statistics help but a lot of the following X-Factors are very important to keep in the back of your head. If you guys like it I'll probably throw it up on the Blog on the site.
1.) Final Exams: Do your homework and see if these guys still have their homework to do. This is a factor in the first weekend of Bowl Games. If a team has a considerable amount of players that still have to take exams I've learned over the years they don't perform as well as expected. It's a lot of work for a 20 year old kid to travel with all the distractions of a playing in a Bowl game on top of having to cram for tests in the hotel all week.
A lot of these guys will be taking tests proctored at a local college or such. **As far as this weekend's games Rutgers has quite a few players still taking tests up until Thursday the 17th and Central Florida finished on Monday. Fresno State has players still testing as well until Thursday the 17th and Wyoming finished last week . Middle Tennessee State had final exams up until Thursday the 17th and Southern Mississippi finished exams on December 10th.***
2.) Fan Ratio: Do your research to find out how well a team travels. It's very simple by looking at the school's athletic website to find this info.They'll say right on home page of the football team if they have available tickets left. If you see they still have X amount of tickets for sale and it seems like a lot more compared to their opponent than start to factor that in to your handicapping.
If a stadium fits 50,000 people for example and you see one team has sold all of their 25,000 tickets and the other school is only expected to sell 10,000 tickets than the team with larger crowd will have a nice advantage. A 70% to 30% fan ratio in a Bowl Game turns a neutral site almost into an away game. This is real important because some fan bases travel to Bowls very well and others don't.
3.) Last Year: You may say what does last year have to do with this year but trust me it plays a factor in this certain case. If a team lost their Bowl Game last year you can throw stats out the window because that team is coming in very motivated nine out of ten times. The Coaching Staff will make sure they are ready to play because they don't want to let down the fans and boosters two years in a row who made the long trip to the game.
4.) Happy to be There: You have to factor in if a team had prior high expectations of playing in a BCS Bowl Game and their season collapsed somewhere along the lines. Most of these teams don't have the motivation to be in the Bowl Game they won a bid too. Look deeply at their opponent and see if their happy to be there.
Hypothetically speaking let's say a SEC West team was Ranked in the Top 25 Preseason Poll and expected to be a BCS team but they finished the season in third place in the division on a slump . They didn't get the BCS bid they expected all year which is a bummer. They are playing the first place team from Conference-USA who happens to be very motivated for this game on the big stage. Many times the smaller school will cover or win straight up against the letdown team.
5,) Doggies: We didn't hit 59% this regular season or 61% last season playing favorites most of the time! More than two thirds of our plays were dogs. When sizing up a game look at the dog first. Don't say Team X is only giving up 3 points and they should blow them out. Look for dogs that can win outright. It happens very often in Bowl Games. Try to find reasons to back the dog before siding with the favorite.
6. ) Press conference: It's very important to watch all of the press conferences involving the coaches the week of the game. They usually have several throughout the week and you can either watch the videos online or read the text quotes. This will give you a good idea of how the team is progressing throughout the weekly practices. Some coaches will give you an idea of their confidence level without meaning to do so. For instance a coach may say "Boy that #94 on their defensive line is some player and we will definitely have our hands full, and their defense is the most sound defense we've faced all year."
You need to pay attention If a coach is stating more disadvantages rather than things he is confident about. He is letting you know it's a strength his team may not be able to handle. Some coaches do it to head fake the opponent out but you can tell if he thinks it's a legit concern. You can read right through the coach to see if his team seems up to the task at hand by how he speaks about how practice is going and the overall demeanor in the locker room. Now that is what I call true "Inside Information" and it's as simple as setting some time aside and watching or reading these conferences.
7.) Media: You can listen to the ESPN guru's hype all you want. There are certain guys on ESPN that do deliver solid analysis but your best bet is reading local newspapers. It's easy as logging online and searching for the local paper of the town the school is from. Unlike the ESPN guys, the journalists for these papers have been following the team all year long and know them better than any of the ESPN experts. Many of these reporters have blogs and such that you can get some very nice info from.
Take all of this info here which I call the X-Factors and use your statistical information as well. Mixing these two handicapping styles together you will have a very profitable bowl season and my best advice is to throw trends out the window!
We lost a lot of talented NCAA-BB players due to graduation and early jumps to the NBA Draft over the summer. Bettors need to get familiar with this new group of incoming Freshmen that will have an impact on your wagers this year. This is a very talented Class of incoming talent and we'll give you nine guys in no particular order to look out for.
1. John Wall G Kentucky
He was expected to go to Memphis but followed John Calipari to Kentucky. He has an amazing handle on the ball and can beat you with his left of right hand. He sees the court with brilliance and is a great passer finding the right guy in open lanes. His speed is also going to be hard to match for many guards in the country. Enjoy it while you can because this will be his only season in Lexington. The only work he needs is getting his three point shot good enough to become a major threat from beyond the arc.
2. Lance Stephenson G Cincinnati
He had some off the court issues in the past but if he can overcome them and stay out of trouble this kid could be something special. In 2005 in the Nike ABC Camp at 14 years old he went toe for toe with 18 year old O.J. Mayo who was the #1 recruit in the nation at the time. Stephenson brought the crowd to their feet many times as he continued to trade exciting buckets with Mayo. His game is eerily similar to Paul Pierce.
3.Derrick Favors F/C Georgia Tech
He joins the Yellow Jackets and immediately gives them one of the best frontcourts in the nation. Favors has a combination of size, strength, skill that may be unmatched. He has great heart and is a solid student in the classroom and off the court. He has a great wingspan and is a defensive beast in the paint. His perimeter game is a work in progress but he is deadly up to 12 feet out. Like Wall enjoy him while you can because he probably won't be playing in college next year.
4. Demarcus Cousins F Kentucky
Calipari landed another huge recruit with Demarcus Cousins this year. He was expected to go to Memphis before following Coach Cal to Lexington. He has a NBA ready frame and the talent to match. He can shoot up to 20 feet and put the ball on the floor and take you to the hoop. He needs to work on his conditioning but he has upside out of this world. His defense is a work in progress but his long wing span is a huge benefit. Tends to rely on his outside shot at times instead of banging down low. He needs to work on his toughness but he has all the skills to make a huge impact for Kentucky by the end of the year.
5. Avery Bradley G Texas
Pure shooting guard and a dream for his coaches. He plays tremendous defense and has a mid range shot that is undeniable. He is only 6'3 but watching him play you would never tell because of the heart he has. He also is pretty long for a 6'3 guard. He might be the most fundamentally sound player of the group here. He moves great with and without the ball and is a team player. His best friend Jordan Hamilton who is a Top 5 recruit is expected to come to Texas next year and the duo will give Longhorns fans a big reasonto smile for the next couple of years if everyone stays in school.
6.John Henson F UNC
He has the length to disrupt things on the defensive end of the ball. He can face up and shoot very well and has a three point shot to keep the defense honest. He can also take you one on one to the basket. He is 6'10 but at 200 lbs. give or take he has to bulk up his frame in due time. His only weakness is his lack of strength but that can be fixed with some work in the weight room. He is as talented of a combo forward as you can ask for.
7. Xavier Henry G Kansas
At 6'6 225 lbs. he has NBA SG size ready to go. He can sink the three, shoot a pull up jump shot, post you up, or use his explosiveness and strength to take you to the basket. He is going to give Big 12 coaches nightmares when having to match guys up with him. He isn't scared to play down low and bang with bigger guys for boards either. Many expected him to go to Memphis but with the coaching change he followed his older brother to Kansas.
8. Keith Gallon C Oklahoma
They call him Tiny but at 6'9 290 lbs. he is anything but that! He has soft hands around the bucket with the ball which is great. He is a solid scorer in the low post that many opponents are going to have their hands full with. Unlike many guys his size he can also dish out to the open man very well when facing the double team. He has to work on some moves around the basket and his rebounding too. He's agile for his size but if he can lose some weight this kid could be scary.
9. Abdul Gaddy G Washington
Abdul and Isaih Thomas Jr. at the point for the Huskies are as dangerous of a 1/2 combo as they come. He is easily the #2 PG behind John Wall in this class. He has blazing speed, a high basketball IQ, can pass like no other, and he plays 100% defense every night. He needs to work on his perimeter game and develop a consistent shot though. It will come over time but in a couple of years he will be the best PG in the country hands down.
Is running the table in the NFL all it's cracked up to be? Not if you asked Teddy Bruschi, the former New England Patriot who was a part of the 2007 team that ran the table in the regular season. He said the pressure built on them every single week and it took a toll on their play starting in Week 15. He said every week he felt the play of the team declined from Week 15 into the playoffs. New Orleans and Indianapolis are both 11-0 at this point. Can either team run the table? My opinion is I don't think either team wants to run the table for their own good.
The Colts will end up losing at least one game along the line. You don't want to go into the playoffs undefeated. Look at the Patriots, they were a veteran team who had a core of players on their team who already had Super Bowl rings on their fingers and they still collapsed. As odd as it is to say this the Colts want to lose a game somewhere in the next couple of weeks. Look at their upcoming schedule; Tennessee, Denver, @ Jacksonville, NY Jets, and @ Buffalo. They are going to slip in one of the games.The Colts have won their last 5 games by an average of 3.6 points.
It could be this week against Tennessee who is playing with their life preservers on since they are back in the playoff hunt. The Titans could be drained coming off of last weeks huge win against Arizona, but the Colts could be drained too after their remarkable come back win at Houston. Vince Young has yet to lose a game as a starter and this might be the biggest game he's played in young career. Don't count the Broncos out because when they visit Indianapolis it may have a defiant meaning in their role in a Wild Card or AFC West positioning. Denver might be very motivated that week. They looked horrible against San Diego without Orton but believe me don't count Denver out yet, just ask the Giants.
They could very easily be susceptible against Jacksonville who is a team that always gives them problems. I don't see the Jets beating them, not with a rookie QB and the fact that Peyton Manning always had his way against Rex Ryan when he was D.C. for the Ravens. The Colts offense is the one offense that made Rex need his antacids pills when watching the film the week after the game.When they play Buffalo in Week 17 if the weather is bad in upstate New York that could be an issue for the Colts. That would mean they will have to rely on their running game to win. The Colts don't have a running game to win in a game in bad weather; they simply aren't built like that.They would be 15-0 at that point and I think they may be more interested in resting key players than worrying about a perfect record.
How about the Saints? They definitely don't want to be undefeated going into the playoffs. It would be too much pressure for this organization to handle. They have a core of guys who haven't won any big games in the playoffs. They might not realize this pressure as of yet and they may try to put 100% into running the table, I guarantee if they do run it they aren't winning the Super Bowl. The Saints have more motivation and need to run the table if I look at it from the outside in. The Colts aside from an unthinkable collapse have home field advantage sitting in their back pockets throughout the playoffs. The Saints have Minnesota nipping at their heels with a 10-1 record; trust me the Saints don't want to play the NFC Championship game in Minnesota.
Everyone is ready to give Drew Brees the throne to the chair as the best QB in the league, but I'm not ready to do that. Let me see Drew Brees win a couple of games in January first. Look at the Saints remaining schedule: @ Washington, @ Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay, @ Carolina. Three winnable games with Washington, Tampa Bay, and Carolina. The Falcons in Atlanta can be tough if Michael Turner and Matt Ryan are healthy, if they aren't we might as well chalk up a win for New Orleans. Dallas will be an interesting game but the Saints playing that one in their stadium will have a nice edge. I just watched Drew Brees scald the Patriots defense on the big stage, I've yet to see Tony Romo give me a big stage performance that left me in awe.
You saw what happened to the 2007 Patriots, the pressure got to them. The old saying goes pressure bust pipes and I believe that 100%. Both of these teams better hope they lose a game between now and the playoffs is all I'm saying!
By: Sal Coletti
Listed below we will go through some of the biggest rivalry games between teams located within the same state in college football. There are a bunch of these games this weekend, but we chose a handful of the games with big time programs involved. Throw the stat sheets out the window because a lot of time the underdogs come out in these games and put their heart into it even if they don't have a shot at a bowl. We'll give you an idea of what dogs have a shot and what favorites may win in blow out fashion.
Texas A&M vs Texas
Fundamentals: The Aggies have enough fire power to keep this one within the large spread. The main problem will be their defense. It ranks last in the Big 12 and if they can't make a few stops early against Texas the momentum can kill them. The Longhorns have started slow a few times this year, but start to roll in the second half on opponents. Texas A&M has laid a goose egg at times this year so they are a risky play. Texas may be looking ahead to bigger and better things and let the Aggies keep it closer than expected.
Recent History
2008: Texas 49 Texas A&M 9 - Longhorns cover as 35 point favorites
2007:Texas A&M 38- Texas 30 - A&M wins outright as 7 point dogs
2006:Texas A&M 12 Texas 7- A&M wins outright as 13 point dogs
Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
Fundamentals: Oklahoma has been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year and Oklahoma State has dealt with injuries and the suspension of their best player Dez Bryant. Does Oklahoma have the motivation after such a letdown season? They were in the Championship game last year and returned many key guys. We expected them to be a player in the BCS talks in August but now in November they are out of those talks. Will the injuries leave Oklahoma State in a bad spot this week? They obviously aren't the same team without Zac Robinson as they are with him. Sneaking out a win at home against Colorado isn't what they wanted heading into this game. A 10 point spread may seem high but if Zac Robinson doesn't play or he isn't fully healthy the Sooners may take advantage and look to save face after getting pounced on against Tech last week.
Recent History
2008: Oklahoma 61 Oklahoma State 41 - Oklahoma covers as 7 point favorites
2007:Oklahoma 49 Oklahoma State 17 - Oklahoma covers as 13 point favorites
2006:Oklahoma 27 Oklahoma State 21 - Oklahoma pushes as 6 point favorites.
Florida State vs Florida
Fundamentals: Urban Meyer has had this way with FSU since joining the Gators, but if we look past the recent blow out against Troy the Gators haven't been blowing teams out. Will they be looking past Florida State at the SEC Championship game against Alabama? If they get a big lead against the Seminoles will they pull their starters due to risk of injury and let Florida State get a back door cover? Can Florida State compete after losing QB Christian Ponder for the year? These are all questions you must ask yourself before wagering on this game.
Recent History
2008: Florida 45 Florida State 15 - Florida Covers as 15 point favorites
2007: Florida 45 Florida State 12 -Florida covers as 14 point favorites
2006: Florida 21 Florida State 14 -Florida State covers as 9 point underdogs
Auburn vs Alabama
Fundamentals: Same as the game above, will Alabama be looking ahead to the SEC Championship game against Florida? Will Gene Chizik be looking to make a statement in this game in his first ever Iron Bowl? This game is at Auburn and Alabama hasn't won here since 2001. Auburn has some offensive weapons but can they execute against this Bama defense? Is revenge on the table for Auburn after losing 36-0 last year or is revenge not enough? Auburn looked weak in SEC road games this year at times but they've been tough on there own turf. This game may play out a lot closer than the experts think.
Recent History
2008 Alabama 36 Auburn 0 -Alabama covers as 14 point favorites
2007 Auburn 17 Alabama 10- Auburn covers as 4 point favorites
2006 Auburn 22 Alabama 15- Auburn covers as 3 point favorites
UCLA vs USC
Fundamentals: The Trojans are on the top of many peoples list as being the biggest disappointment this season. People had too high expectations for the Trojans we believe. They had a Fr. QB and an inexperienced defense. UCLA didn't live up to much hype either. We expected them to be a Top 3 or 4 team in the Pac-10 but they never could get their offense clicking. This years game will be very interesting to watch because these teams may be more closely matched on paper than the point spread indicates. USC had hopes of a national title game, now that's gone and we have to figure will this team be playing 100% against UCLA after what they feel was a let down year. If UCLA can get any kind of offense they may be able to compete in here.
Recent History
2008 USC 28 UCLA 7- UCLA covers as 33 point underdogs
2007 USC 24 UCLA 7- UCLA covers as 19 point underdogs
2006 UCLA 13 USC 9- UCLA wins outright as 11 point underdogs
The 8 worst teams in the NFL are 8-50 straight up and 17-41 ATS after 8 weeks of football. That means these teams are 29% ATS right now this season. Oddsmakers need to and will adjust very fast for the second half of the NFL season making a much bigger gap in spread when upper and lower tier teams play each other. They have to in order to create a profit for their corporate bosses since the NFL is their most popular bet on sport.
Just look at these teams records and we'll go through them in ABC order:
Cleveland Browns are 1-7 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS)
Detroit Lions are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
Kansas City Chiefs are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
Oakland Raiders are 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS.
St. Louis Rams are 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.
Tennessee Titans are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
Washington Redskins are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS.
This is the worst year since 2005 for oddsmakers and actually at this point of the season it is even worse then that year was. Usually the bottom 8 teams in the league finish around 50% ATS record and the books do just fine. That's not the case this year as the betting public is raking in every week playing against these teams.
Two of these teams the Rams and the Titans picked up their first wins of the season this weekend but the Rams did so against the Lions who are in this group. The Raiders also covered against division rival San Diego but can't seem to get up for non-division opponents and the Browns got smothered once again 30-6 as double digit dogs in the range of 11.5 to 13 depending on when you bought it.
It's been a tough 2009 for smart money guys and sports books this year as the talent gap in the NFL is very bad. Maybe this past week 8 where the 4 teams that played out of this group went 3-1 ATS. Is that showing that things may play out to favor dog lovers and the books in the second half of the season? We shall see.
Temple
The Owls are looking like a serious contender in the MAC East right now. This is a very experienced team that brought back 51 players from a squad a year ago that went 5-7 after losing their star QB due to injury. This year Temple is 4-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS. The biggest boost to this team from a year ago is the running game. Last year they averaged just 95 yards per game and under 3 yards per carry. This year Bernard Pierce has emerged as the teams stand out back; he is averaging 92.8 yards per game with 6 rushing touchdowns and 5.8 yards per carry. That's a huge boost to Al Golden's team which are always very tough on the defensive side of the ball. Halfway through the season they already have 36 tackles for losses, 16 sacks, and 8 Int's.
When to back them: Playing a high powered Toledo offense on the road this weekend is going to prove to a be a huge test for the Owls. Luckily Toledo is a Mac-West team though. The Owls are very live ATS throughout their remaining games after Toledo.They could upset Navy who they took to Overtime last year, and they should roll through Miami-Oh, Akron, and Kent State. The biggest test and the game that could very well determine the MAC-East winner is the November 27th showdown with Ohio. As of today our power ratings have both of them dead even.
Troy
They were a huge letdown in their opener against Bowling Green when they got routed 31-14. That followed a visit to the Swamp in Gainesville where they got pounded 56-6. The Bowling Green game was kind of shocking since we all projected Troy to have one of the best Non-BCS defenses in country during the preseason. Halfway through they sit at 4-2 both straight up and ATS. QB Levi Brown is starting to heat up as he is completing 65% of his passes right now and his stats could get even more bolstered given his up coming schedule. Their defensive front 7 has 14 sacks and is starting to live up to their potential.The back four need to tighten things up though but the pressure the front 7 can apply will continue to take weight off of their shoulders.
When to back them:The only conference game left on their schedule we can foresee a potential loss is against University of Louisiana Monroe. They should have no problems with North Texas, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana. They do play Arkansas a week after Petrino's squad plays a physical South Carolina team. If the price is right the Trojans may cover this game but Ryan Mallet should have a field day against their secondary if Troy can't harass him. Outside of the games against ULM and Arkansas we should see the Trojans winning some very lopsided contests left on their schedule and covering big chalk.
Nevada
Sure we played against them last week with an underrated Utah State team and cashed a nice ticket but this teams stock is rising big time. They failed to compete with Notre Dame in their opener losing 35-0. Then they lost at Colorado State and home to Missouri.They are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS right now. Remember now they are playing all WAC teams on their remaining schedule who are much more their size and speed and they have an edge against most of them. They are the best rushing team in the country right now putting 292 yards per game on the ground, They have a tall and athletic QB in Colin Kaepernick. Their defense is a little smallish but very fast and have a solid 53 tackles for a loss this year already and are starting to gel.
When to back them: This week oddsmakers are showing the fact they feel Idaho is going to get trampled in Reno as most of the public so far is pouring money in on Idaho who has yet to lose a game ATS but the line continues to rise. It's showing the obvious respect oddsmakers have for Nevada in this match up. Pick your poison in that game but there are much better games to back them coming up. Especially against teams like Hawaii, San Jose State, and New Mexico State who can't stop the run. They play Fresno State at home and the Fresno State Bulldogs struggle whenever they travel to Reno. Nevada is the only team left on Boise State's schedule that can upset their perfect season. If they are a dog of double digits then they are a must play. Two years ago on the Smurf Turf they scared Boise State in a 69-67 4 OT loss and last year played the #9 Broncos tight at home in a 41-34 loss.
Oregon State
Mike Riley's teams start very slow every year in the first 3 or 4 weeks and we capitalized a couple of times playing against them, so take note of it for future reference. They are horrible against the spread the first few weeks of the season every single year under him.The Beavers start peaking later in the season which is much better anyway for Bowl placing. Right now they are 4-2 straight up and 2-3 ATS. QB Sean Canfield is having a season which is way under most bettors radars. He is completing over 67% of his passes with a 8/4 TD/Int ratio.The Rogers brothers already have a combined 17 touchdowns and the defensive front 7 remain strong while this secondary remains a weakness. They may start to get better though as we head into the final stretch of the season since many of them weren't starters prior to this year and they have gained experience.
When to back them:This team should cover at least 4 of their six final games and Mike Riley will earn his 4th straight winning season ATS. Riley always finds a way to cover spreads late in the season. He has only had one losing season ATS in 6 years here in Corvallis.
WAKE FOREST
They are 3-2 straight up but are only 2-3 ATS so far this year but we think the Demon Deacons stock will continue to rise down the stretch. The key will be running backs Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass who combined for 141 yards against Maryland last week.
If the Deacons can get these two guys going this team can be a serious threat. Riley Skinner leads the ACC's top rated offense as he completes over 69% of his passes but seems to be overshadowed by many of the other prime time QB's. On the defensive side of the ball the Wake front 7 have done a solid job allowing just 3 rushing touchdowns; it's their secondary who has been torched for over 240 yards per game and 13 touchdowns so far. If Jim Grobe can get this group to tighten up the loose bolts this team can be very complete. We like what they have to offer down the stretch.
When to back them: In home dog and road dog roles. Jim Grobes teams travel well on the road. In 18 road contests since 2006 they have only lost by double digits 3 three times. Bonus: In Bowl games Grobe is 3-1 ATS with all 3 wins by double digits.
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
They are 5-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS so far. They lost QB Matt Grothe but their stock isn't going to sink as much as people think. New QB BJ Daniels who is a red shirt Fr. is very exciting to watch play. He has a pair wheels on him and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry right now and leading the team in rushing. He also has a nice arm and smart thinking which his 6/2 TD/Int ratio speaks for itself. The biggest question from keeping the stock from rising here is the need for somebody to step up in the running game aside from Daniels.
Their defense is what wins games for this team this year. They are a very talented bunch and remind us of a poor man's version of a Florida State defense from the 90's. The secondary is athletic and fast the front seven can apply pressure and clamp down on opposing running backs. They haven't had much competition yet this year but so far they've given up just 5 touchdowns. They are 7 in turnovers and teams are converting just 29% of their third downs on them. We'll see how real they are this week when the Top 25 Bearcats come strolling in.
When to back them: At home. Head Coach Jim Leavitt is 39-11 on his home turf as the coach of the Bulls since joining the FBS. He is also a solid 24-14 ATS(63%) in home games since joining.
VIRGINIA
They are 3-2 straight up and 3-1 ATS. Yes Al Groh's team has shown life since the 26-14 loss in their opener against FCS William& Mary. They've beaten Top 25 UNC, a good Southern Miss team, and a very bad Indiana team. With Maryland, Ga Tech, and Duke in the next coming weeks they have a very realistic chance to be 5-3 heading into the four games of the season. A tough final four games with two on the road to Miami and Clemson and two home games against BC and VA Tech. It may actually look like a 6-6 finish for his team but if they pull an upset somewhere it wouldn't shock us if they manage a winning season somehow.
The biggest story here is the recent surge of the offense led by running back Mikell Simpson who is a senior and their QB James Sewell is also a senior playing better than the first two games. If they play teams that are pass oriented(hint: Duke) we can expect a lot of success because this secondary led by Vic Hall is very underrated but we know Groh always puts together solid defenses.
When to back them: They are pretty live the whole way through their schedule. October 24th against Georgia Tech may be a great opportunity to grab them as a home dog. They have beaten Tech 8 straight times at home and Groh can stop the option; remember last year they beat them outright as 14 point dogs in Atlanta.
MICHIGAN STATE
They are 3-3 straight up and 3-2 ATS so far. Mark Dantonio is a great coach and his team should have momentum on their side after upsetting their rival from Ann Arbor. If they lost that game they would be in a spiral downward. The upcoming trap lies this weekend against Northwestern; a team they have struggled with in the past. They should be able to handle that one but the Wildcats are very live this weekend and if Kafka lights up this Spartans secondary as we expect it can spell trouble for the Spartans . Penn State and Iowa await in the coming month but he gets them both at home and has already beaten both teams in East Lansing under his tenure.
The other games are Minnesota, Purdue, and Western Michigan which are all very winnable games. His defense is good up front against the run and has 18 sacks already. We like both QB's Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. We like both running backs Larry Caper and Glenn Winston and how are starting to emerge the past three weeks and that was the missing recipe in the beginning of the season.
When to back them: D'Antonio has been solid here against the spread 17-12-2 ATS and we love his coaching style and it covers spreads bottom line. They are live as long as they aren't laying heavy chalk.
As you'll see below not only does defense win games but it covers spreads and cashes tickets. Are these teams for real and will they continue to be a cash cow or will oddsmakers adjust things?
Alabama 5-0 ATS: Alabama is as real as they come. According to our power ratings they are the #2 team in country. They have a defense that will win you games and clamp down on opposing offenses and keep them out of the endzone. The offense has shown signs of sputtering here and there but usually they break out by the 2nd half and pull things away. There biggest chance to trip up ATS? This week against Ole Miss; don't count the Rebels out in this game. The last four meetings have been decided by 3 points but all Bama wins. The current line is at 6.5 and this may be the spot oddsmakers have Bama set up for their first ATS loss this year. In the second half of the year we think oddsmakers will adjust on Alabama and inflate their lines especially if they cover this Ole Miss game just because they are such a "public" team.
Idaho 5-0 ATS: Yes the Idaho Vandals of the WAC have yet to lose a game ATS. They were just 2-10 su last year but we found a couple of spots to back them last year and had them on our watch list all Summer. We've backed them a couple of times already this year and the key story about this team is the play of QB Nathan Enderle. He is a big physical kid with some big receivers to throw the ball too and they can move the ball. They have a fantastic coaching staff as well and this program is on the rise. They'll slip up somewhere down the road but the public hasn't caught on yet to Idaho since oddsmakers installed them as dogs once again this week against San Jose State. The betting public won't have too much faith putting their money behind the Vandals but if they jump on the wagon anytime this year best believe oddsmaker will adjust the lines and we'll lose the value.
Nebraska 4-0 ATS: Defense, Defense, Defense. It wins games and covers spreads and this Bo Pelini team has the blueprint to be a ATS cash cow. Closest problem we see is this week against Mizzou. They look much better on paper then the Tigers but they have been blown out by a combined 93-23 the last two years combined against them. Mizzou is a big sleeper this year and has caught they eye of plenty of sharp bettors . The 2.5 line for this game is very fishy so buyers beware but we think the Huskers may have their best ATS finish since 2003 when they cashed a ticket in 8 of their 13 games!
Boise State 4-0 ATS: The Smurf turf! Since 2000 the Broncos haven't had a losing ATS season! That's just simply amazing. They are 70-40-2(64%) since 2000. They have a cupcake schedule remaining but at some point here the oddsmakers are going to really inflate their lines big time. They didn't look too impressive in their last game against UC-Davis; an FCS school they only beat 34-16. They should run the table straight up but definitely will fail to cover a few of their road games coming up when they are given some BIG chalk to lay as oddsmaker will make proper adjustments.
UCF 4-0 ATS: Defense, Defense, Defense once again. A college football bettors best friend. This team is completely under bettors radars right now because they aren't a well known team to be strong ATS year in and year out. Are they for real? Not straight up but in underdog situations they deserve an automatic look. Their next game is October 17th against Miami-Fl. How amped can Miami be for this game? Not much. Last year Central Florida played them tight in a 20-14 loss. They will slip up if oddsmakers place them as a favorite somewhere down the line so buyer beware when they are favorites especially if they are ever installed as road favorites stay far, far away! As pups though we love 'em.
A few of these teams had high hopes but have failed to cash a ticket this year. Will any of them turn it around or just fade these teams?
Memphis 0-4 ATS: Memphis looks horrible right now from every aspect of the game and the thing is they have some pretty good athletes.It may be time for coach Tommy West to go. Their only win this year is against UT-Martin an FCS school they barely beat by two scores. If they ever do win a game then fade them the next game automatically. They are just 15-32 ATS in the last 10 years off a straight up win. You won't see us backing the Tigers anytime soon but their best chance for a cover is this week coming up against UTEP who will be VERY tired after a blowout fast paced 60 minutes of football they played when upsetting Houston last week. UTEP better watch out because this may be a great chance for Memphis to catch them and get their first conference win of the year. But overall stay away from them but a small wager on them this weekend might be worth it!
Florida Atlantic 0-4 ATS: This team had a lot of preseason hype with Sr. QB Rusty Smith back but we knew this team wasn't as good as advertised and particularly on defense. Let's not forget they did play Nebraska and South Carolina so far this year; two teams who have yet to lose ATS. Defensively this team is struggling but they can put some points up and move the ball. They are just having trouble closing games out. They will definitely grab some ATS wins against some conference foes this year. Watch out for FAU because we think the 0-4 is a little over-exaggerated due to the tough non-conference games and they never play well against BCS schools anyway. Don't fade FAU yet because their winning days lie ahead in the next couple of months in Sun Belt play and we definitely will look to back them in certain spots.
Illinois 0-3 ATS: Juice Williams and the Illini had such high hopes this year and ever since the horrible game against Mizzou in the opener it's been downhill. They were projected to be in contention in the Big-10 and now find themselves trying to find their first straight up win vs a BCS team. They are done with Ohio State and Penn State for their own sakes so it can only get better they hope. They've had some injury problems, etc but Ron Zook has been a ticket burner any way and sharp bettors either fade or stay away from his games. They have the talent and will get some ATS wins down the road but we wouldn't advise laying your cash behind this team at any point. Look to fade Illini!
Tulane 0-3 ATS:It's been tough sledding for Coach Bob Toledo who is just 10-16 ATS since taking over 3 years ago. They are a bad defensive team and are allowing 34 points per game and we want no part with that. Oddsmakers will show them some love and inflate some of their lines especially against some of the higher powered Conference-USA offenses they'll be facing but we want no action with the Green Wave this year. Fade 'em!