With the normal 8 point swing from Game 2 in Atlanta to Game 3 in Boston should be Atlanta +4. But before you jump out of your seat screaming Atlanta is getting 3.5 points of value let me explain a couple of things that can get tricky. For one Boston in oddsmakers and the betting publics eyes still holds one of the biggest Home Court advantages in the league. Also remember that Josh Smith is unlikely to play in this game most oddsmakers will tell you he is worth 1.5 or 2 points. Also keep in mind Rondo was out in Game 2 which was the reason the Game 2 line was -4. Rondo is worth 1.5 or 2 points in most oddsmakers eyes. Game 3 Rondo is back in and Josh Smith of the Hawks is likely out. Game 1 when everyone was healthy Atlanta opened -2 in that game. If everyone was healthy here it would be likely that this game would have opened Atlanta+6. Factor in the +1.5 points that you have to take away for Josh Smith and you get the +7.5 that we saw when this opened. That +7.5 didn’t stick around as the market reacted fast and moved this line up to 8 and even 8.5 at some shops. If you really look at it at +8.5 Atlanta is getting about 1 point of value. Or are they? You have to ask yourself is Boston’s home court edge overadjusted into this line? Is Josh Smith really worth 1.5 points? It’s all stuff you have to use into your handicapping Friday.

Chicago vs Philadelphia
Game 2: Bulls-6 (opening #)
Game 3: Bulls+2 (opening #)

With the normal 8 point swing from Game 2 in Chicago to Game 3 in Philadelphia the Bulls should be +2. Bingo, here is the first game we have seen far this year with an exact 8 point swing from Game 2 to Game 3 in the NBA playoffs. Some books the early money has moved Chicago to +1.5 with some early money coming on the Bulls as we come to press time. So all in all this game has no value just from the 8 point swing viewpoint. Looking deeper than the 8 point swing the Bulls did play rather good without Derrick Rose this season. Is this the typical bounce back spot for the Bulls off a loss after their first game without Rose in the playoffs? Or does Philly have Chicago have them where they want them 1-1 heading to play at home in front of a rowdy crowd on Friday night with a chance to take a series lead?

LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
Game 2: Lakers-5 (opening #)
Game 3: Lakers+4 (opening #)

With the normal 8 point swing from Game 2 in LA to Game 3 in Denver should be Lakers+3. So here you have 1 point of value sitting on the table with the Lakers. A lot of that extra one point is the fact that the Nuggets have one of the strongest home court advantages in the league due to the high altitude in Denver. The Lakers have Kobe Byrant and they are a public team from a big market so I’m sure books anticipate Lakers money on Friday regardless. It still didn’t stop them from giving Denver about an extra point for home court advantage. Remember the Lakers are also team that is usually “Taxed” this time a year. So to bet on the Lakers you are usually paying 1 or even 2 points in some cases higher than what the line should be. Still Denver’s home court edge trumps that. As a handicapper it’s your job to ask yourself is Denver’s home court edge worth the extra point here? From an ATS viewpoint Denver wasn’t as strong at home as in years past. Or are the Lakers not being given the respect here and getting an extra point of value laying around?

I always said in order to win in this business sometimes you have to think like the guy on the side of the counter setting the lines. Trying to figure how and why are they setting the lines a certain way can help you gain an edge over the rest of the betting public. I’ve been using these tactics to destroy the books in the NBA Playoffs in my career. You can get the rest of my NBA Playoffs picks right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

The criteria is I track all money lines at one of my local books that uses a normal 10 cent MLB lines. I’ve tracked all MLB lines that move 10 cents or more from the opening line to the closing line and track the results. All results are graded on the closing line not the opening line. I was actually very surprised at the results thus far.

Betting Favorites that moved 10 cents or more
50-23 (68%) +17.04 units

So yes a bettor who bet to win $100 on every MLB favorite that the line moved 10 cents or greater in the direction of the favorite from the opening number to closing number won 68% of their bets and would have netted a profit of $1,704. Pretty shocking huh? I was definitely a little surprised when I saw this. When I told a lot of the old school guys about this before I posted this blog they said the same thing. Check back with me in late September and give me the results. Their theory is the juice will eat away at these profits through the course of the season.

Betting Underdogs that moved 10 cents or more
45-48 (48%) +10.09 units

So yes a bettor who risked $100 on every MLB dog that the line moved 10 cents or great in the direction of the dog from the opening number to the closing number 48% of their bets and would have netted a profit of $1,009. It shows you to make money in MLB you don’t need to mess around with the juice. You could have won less than 50% of your bets and still be up money.

Betting Underdogs and favorites that moved 10 cents or more final results
95-71 (57%) +27.13 units

Combining both the results of favorites and underdogs from above you would have won 57% of your bets and a $100 bettor would be up $2,713 just by chasing steam watching lines move and betting right before the first pitch.

I never suggest following line moves on the blind but I did find the early results through a little over a month of baseball very interesting. I’ll be tracking this all year and do my next update by the All-Star Break. We’ll get a picture if the steam chasers are making money or not with a greater sample size.

One thing I can tell you is my clients and I have been making money on the bases this year. I’ve only bet one favorite and concentrated on nothing but underdogs and totals. It keeps me away from heavy juice and lessens our risk. If you need an advisor for MLB this season look no further because you can get my daily, weekly, monthly, and season baseball passes right here at the site or by calling me at the office at (757) 462-9030.

Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic
Game 2: Pacers-9
Game 3: Pacers-3.5

With the normal 8 point swing changing venues from Game 2 in Indiana to Game 3 in Orlando this line should have opened Pacers -1. It opened Pacers -3.5 which leaves 2.5 points of value on the table with the Magic. Orlando is without their superstar Dwight Howard right now and coming off of a double digit loss in Game 2. Maybe that’s the reason for the adjustment on the number? Remember the betting public lets what they saw their last game affect their betting habits. They bet Indiana in Game 1 who lost outright. Game 2 the betting public was heavily on the Magic money line and pointspread who lost by double digits and failed to cover. They broke the betting publics heart and seeing such a short # as -1 maybe oddsmakers knew they would get extremely 1 sided action on Indiana. Remember oddsmakers jobs is to try create a pointspread that attracts 50/50 split action on both sides to ensure the house a profit. This line seems to be more of a protect the books type of thing from 1 sided action, and using the 8 point swing it’s easy to see there is 2.5 points of value laying on the table with Orlando. Remember sharps aka professional bettors love betting dogs coming home in Game 3 of a series in front of a energized crowd and we’ll see how this line moves over the next 24 hours if they back the Magic. Did Orlando just get lucky in Game 1 and bound to get run out of this series quickly relying on their long range shooters without Dwight? Or is Indiana simply overvalued in this series is what you need to ask yourself?

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks
Game 2: Heat-9.5 (opening #)
Game 3: Heat-5 (opening #)

With the normal 8 point swing changing venues from Game 2 in Miami to Game 3 in New York this line should have opened Miami-1.5. It opened Miami-5 and before you jump and say man there’s some serious value with the Knicks here let me explain why it opened -5. Amare Stoudemire is out due to his injured hand and if you ask most oddsmakers they say Stoudemire is worth 3 points. Okay so let’s say he is worth 3 points, that means we’ll take away 3 points from the Knicks and make them +4.5. That is only a half of point off the normal 8 point swing. The reason this game didn’t adjust a full 8 points is mainly because of the Stoudemire injury which is factored into the line so everything looks about right with no value either way from the 8 point swing standpoint. The Knicks are 0-2 or 0-1-1 ATS depending on how you shopped your #’s on the Knicks in Games 1 and Game 2. So it’s unlikely to see the betting public back the Knicks now especially with Amare out. The Knicks did go 16-6 ATS without Amare this year in the line up to make note of. Is there too much turmoil in this lockerroom right now? I know some sharps whose knee jerk reaction is bet the home team down 0-2 in the series in Game 3 at home and took the Knicks here. This line did move down to 4.5 at press time at my local books from the +5 opener. I know other sharps who think the Knicks were overvalued coming into the playoffs and felt they should have been 10 or 11 point dogs in both of the games in Miami and think they get swept under the rug. It’s your call, do you think the Knicks are being priced right in this series? Or do they bounce back Wednesday at the Garden in front of their home crowd?

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks
Game 2: Thunder-7 (opening #)
Game 3: Thunder+1.5 (opening #)

With the normal 8 point swing changing venues from Game 2 in Oklahoma City to Game 3 in Dallas this line should have opened Thunder +1. It opened Thunder +1.5 which is basically spot on and no value either way. Or is there value? Like I said before sharps love betting the home team down 0-2 in Game 3 in their first game at home. It’s a knee jerk reaction type of thing for them because as history goes it has made them money over the years. Sharps hit Dallas hard and it moved from the -1.5 opener up to -3 at press time. Now at the current # of Thunder +3 it seems overadjusted using the 8 point swing theory because you now have 1.5 points of value sitting on the table with the Thunder. If you look at it both games 1 and 2 were decided by 3 points and 1 point. Okay so both games were one possession games and if you take Oklahoma City here after the move you are theoretically getting 1.5 points of value. Do you scoop up the value on the table now since both games already played down to the wire or do you think sharps made the right move siding with history and taking Dallas in the Game 3 down 0-2 role?

I always said in order to win in this business sometimes you have to think like the guy on the side of the counter setting the lines. Trying to figure how and why are they setting the lines a certain way can help you gain an edge over the rest of the betting public. I’ve been using these tactics to destroy the books in the NBA Playoffs in my career. Wednesday is my first 5* bet of the NBA Playoffs and I look to cash out! You can get my 5* play and the rest of my NBA Playoffs picks right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

K/BB Ratio: This is one of my favorites. I want to know a pitchers strike out to walk ratio. Control is a tell tale sign of a good or bad pitcher. If you have a guy like Cole Hamels of the Phillies ho has a 21/2 strike out to walk ratio at the time I wrote this article, it’s clear as day that is a guy that is zoned in right now. The elite pitchers will have double the amount of punchouts as walks. Try to steer clear of hurlers who have just as many or even more walks than strike outs. There could be an underlying issue such as lack of confidence, injury, bad mechanics, etc. affecting this pitchers command.

ERA: This is the most common stat most bettors focus on when breaking down starting pitchers. It’s the average number of runs a pitcher will give up per 9 innings pitched. The lower earned run average per 9 innings the better. Your solid pitchers will be below 3.50 and over 4.50 is pitchers that are struggling.

WHIP: Walks and hits per inning pitched. A very overlooked stat when handicapping baseball. WHIP and ERA sort of go hand and hand. A pitcher with a high WHIP will usually have a higher ERA. The more batters a pitcher walks or allows a hit against, the odds increase the other team will score. Pretty basic. Pitchers with WHIP’s below 1.25 are rock solid. Hurlers with WHIP’s above 1.50 are dangerous.

Win/Loss record: This one can be very misleading. Dig deeper when looking at win loss record. Look at his past starts. Is the pitcher simply getting lucky from great run support lately? Certainly if that’s the case it will catch up to him sooner than later when his teams offensive output regresses to the mean in one of his starts. You can’t just back a pitcher on the blind with a solid win/loss record without making sure K/BB ratio, ERA, and WHIP are all above standard going hand and hand with his win loss record. Same goes with a struggling pitcher. Look at his past starts. Is his bullpen blowing games he starts? In that case he maybe a good candidate to back in the first 5 innings. Is he getting lack of run support in his starts but still throwing quality starts? Does he gave good ERA, WHIP, and K/BB but maybe caught some bad breaks? Do your homework!

Quality Starts: This one is simple. To earn a quality start you need to pitch 6 innings without allowing more than 3 earned runs. Pitchers with solid quality starts most likely always will have good ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratios. A pitcher who gives you a solid 6 or 7 innings has done 2/3 of the job to helping you cash your winning ticket. If you see pitchers that rarely toss quality starts the odds are stacked against them to bring you home the bacon.

Park Factors: Every baseball park is designed differently. Some are pitcher friendly and others are hitter friendly. For example a pitcher pitches in a pitcher friendly park and his stats maybe padded because of that. Keep an eye out when he goes out on the road to a hitter friendly park where he can get exposed. The same goes for a pitcher that is putting up strong numbers at home in a hitter friendly park. When this guy goes on the road he will do better than you think and outperform the line in many cases. Some cappers may see an average or less than average pitcher who put a great numbers in his last 3 starts and make a big mistake. If you did your homework and see he pitched 3 games in pitcher friendly parks and now is coming into a hitter friendly park he is very likely to regress back to the norm.

Injuries: Old school rule of thumb is you never want to back a pitcher with any kind of known injury. Especially when it comes to his throwing arm, shoulder, hand, finger, etc. These are pitchers you want to stay far away from or fade. An old trick you can use is fade any pitcher in his first start back off after missing his last regularly scheduled start due to injury. A lot of old school guys will tell you that one. This one is a great one if you fading a high priced pitcher and get a nice chunky dog. Also another one is fade any pitcher in his first start back from the disabled list. Many times these pitchers are rusty. Again it works great when fading a high priced pitcher.

Rookies: Many casual bettors make a big mistake of auto fading a pitcher making a debut from the minor leagues. Many times you can find a quality pitcher being called up from the minor leagues that are vastly underpriced. Oddsmakers know the betting public will never back a pitcher in his first start up from the big leagues unless he is a well known stud like Strasburg for example .Pitchers minor league stats and scouting reports are widely available on the internet. Many times you will find an up and coming starter at a cheap favorite or dog price when he is first called up if you are on top of things and can use that to your advantage.

Over or Under achieving: Many times I like to look for an average or sub-par pitcher that is coming off of pitching at least 2 or more quality starts in a row to fade him. It’s the law of averages he is likely to regress back to his normal stuff and is now likely overpriced because of his last couple performances where he overachieved. I also like to find an above average pitcher that is coming of one or two bad performances in their last couple of starts. More than likely this guy is due to have a bounce back game and will be underpriced.

Pitch count: As we get deeper into the season start to really keep your eyes on pitchers pitch counts in their recent starts. As the season goes on a lot of times pitchers arms get weaker. If you see a pitchers pitch count starting to get higher than usual in his past couple of starts you are likely to catch him a spot where he he will not be as sharp as usual do to recent wear and tear from being overworked.Same thing may go for a guy who has been throwing under his normal pitch count. You may catch his arm fresher and due for a strong start.

Winning in MLB is pretty easy and has better chances if you know your starting pitchers and techniques to handicapper them better. Remember in order to win like a sharp betting sports you need to think like one. It’s a long Summer and I plan to make plenty of money building up bankroll heading into football season. Hop on board and get all my MLB picks this year right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

I think the greatest benefit for baseball bettors that oddsmakers did was introducing the 1st 5 inning bet. You get to bet the 1st 5 innings of a baseball game at virtually the same odds you get to bet for a full game. Let me go through some of the major benefits to you about this.

Let’s start off with the biggest one which is starting pitching. Let’s face it this isn’t 1970 when starting pitchers tossed 9 innings on a regular basis. Justin Verlander was the most dominant pitcher in 2011, he started 34 games and only pitched 4 complete games. You’re betting full game odds on Verlander but he only completes a game in 12% of his starts. So now you’re relying on the bullpen to win your bet, something you may not have factored into your handicapping. What many baseball bettors fail to realize is you when oddsmakers create the odds on a baseball game the biggest factor going into it is starting pitching.

The fact of the matter is that even the best pitchers in baseball usually only pitch 2/3 or 3/4 of the game. You paid a price on a pitcher that isn’t going to be pitching the full game. Imagine betting a football game knowing your starting QB is going to be pulled out of the game in the 4th quarter and being asked to lay the same price you would if he played the full game? You probably wouldn’t do it. But in baseball you don’t have that to sacrifice the last 1/3 or 1/4 of a game on a bullpen imploding and blowing your bet. All you have to do is start looking at the first 5 innings of a game.

Everybody is quick to think let me take the better team and pitcher and bet on them for the first 5 innings. It’s simply not that easy guys. In baseball many times you will find a dog leading through first 5 innings only to watch a shoddy bullpen blow the lead and the superior team wins the game. Think about any sport. How many times have we seen a small conference NCAA-FB or NCAA-BB team hang around vs a goliath for the first half only to get blown out in the second half? Same thing with baseball, the longer the game is, and the more at bats for the better line up the better odds of the better team winning. Earlier in the game it is not uncommon to see a dog lead through the 1st 5 innings but blow the game late.

Let’s look at the Chicago Cubs. They are 3-7 straight up on the money line for full games on the season. They are 7-3 straight up on the money line during the 1st 5 innings on the season pulling in a nice profit. Laying basically the same odds but the results are complete opposite.

Why are the Cubs so good first 5 innings and not good for the full game? Probably not a shocker the Cubs have the 28th ranked bullpen in baseball with a 5.47 ERA. You’re getting the Cubs at virtually the same price for the 1st 5 innings giving you a ton of value. They are in the top 10 of runs scored per game in the first 5 innings and blow leads. Great recipe to make money at dog prices with the Cubs for the first 5 innings.

How about the Baltimore Orioles? They are 6-2-1 in the 1st 5 innings this year bringing home a nice profit. They are only 5-4 on the season in full games. Again here is a team with a bullpen that sits in the bottom half of the league. You’re getting virtually the same dog prices betting them first 5 innings as you are betting them the full game. As the season progresses I won’t be shocked to the Orioles have a losing full game record but maintain a profitable 1st 5 inning record. I mean units or money earned and not win %.

How about the Washington Nationals? They are off to a great start with a 7-3 record and in first place of the National League East this year. They are slow starters though, only 4-6 on the money line for the 1st 5 innings of game. The Nationals are only averaging 1.3 runs per first 5 innings while their opponents are putting up 2.3 runs per first 5 innings. The Nationals are closing out games by rallying with their bats and strong bullpen pitching. The Nats pen is the Top 10 of the league.

The Yankees every year are notoriously slow starters in baseball games. They tend to rely on their bats rallying late in games and a strong bullpen. They are only 4-5 in the first 5 innings of games vs a 5-4 record for full games. At virtually the same price you can usually count on the Yankees finishing down more units for the 1st 5 innings of the season vs the full game at the end of the season.

Again it’s really early in the season but as we get more data on all the teams and pitchers I will do in depth updates every month on every team for the first 5 inning stats.

In order to really make money though you need to know your starting pitching inside and out. There are some starters who get stronger as the game goes on, while other hurlers start out strong and fall apart later in the game. You need to do your due dilligence on pitchers first 5 inning history. Books don’t put that much emphasis into first 5 inning lines. If you do a little record keeping you will be the one with the upper hand. If you track both pitchers and team records for the first 5 innings you will have a nice nugget of resource to utilize that many don’t pay attention too.

Think about it the first 5 innings odds are identical to the full game odds but the results of the two are very different. You need to really know the batting order of each team as well. Line ups with an artilerary of hitters from 1-6 usually have a slight edge since the 1-6 batters are likely to bat at least 2 times. You need to factor this into your capping.

What about betting totals? I think they can be very profitable when betting first 5 innings. I’m not a big fan of betting overs for the first 5 innings but I will do so once in a blue. I think due to the lack of talent in today’s bullpens you have a better shot of hitting an over when games fall in to the seventh, eighth , and ninth innings.Today’s relief pitching is about as bad as it’s ever been.

I tend to like to try to spot out unders in the first 5 innings. With the quality of starting pitchers declining in today’s game it even makes this a little trickier.

If i can find two pitchers who are pretty consistent as far as throwing quality starts that’s a game I circle. Of course I have to look deeper at things now. I want to see how the visiting pitcher has fared in this ball park in his past few visits and I want to see how the home pitcher has done over his last few starts when this team comes to town. Of course I factor in umpire, weather, hitting, etc. But if you do your home work you can pick your spots betting 1st 5 innings totals.

Starting in May when we have more data I’m going to update you the best and worst teams by separating teams 1st 5 inning records. We’ll also look to point out teams like the Cubs who are exceeding the 1st 5 inning market but failing to win the full game. And teams like the Nationals and Yankees who start out slow. I’ll also point out pitchers who are struggling and thriving in the 1st 5 innings. So make sure to check back once a month for my 1st 5 inning blog. If you need any help my daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal MLB packages are available right here at the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.

Betting Totals (Over/Unders) in baseball is something that the betting public doesn’t involve themselves with frequently. Sharps aka professional bettors know that the the easiest way to make money during the course of a 162 game MLB season is focusing on Totals. You can ask any sportsbook manager and they will tell you the same thing. This is why all sportsbook have strict limits on how much sharps can bet on MLB Totals. I’m going to give you the inside edge on how sharps beat the books over the course of the season focusing on MLB Totals.

Umpires
The first thing I’m going to start with is umpire stats. This is a very important tool that all sharps account for and usually don’t wager on games until the Umpires are announced for each game. They look very carefully at an umpires strike to ball ratio. It’s simple philosophy, if he calls more strikes his games are more likely to go under. If he calls more walks his games are more likely to go over.

They love to look at an umpires over/under record. For instance the Under has cashed in over 59% of Doug Eddings’ games behind home plate heading into the 2012 season. So right there is a guy they are going to look heavily at for an under in the right circumstances. If you look deep into his stats he calls strikes 64% of the time. He averages over twice as many strike outs per game walks per game. Eddings is a very pitcher friendly ump with a wide strike zone.

Jerry Crawford on the other hand tends to be an Over umpire. The Over has cashed in 55% of his games behind home plate. He calls strikes only 61% of the time. He average a league high over 10 runs per game when he’s behind home plate. Crawford is a hitter friendly ump with a very tight strike zone. I’m not going to be able to go over every ump in baseball but you can get the drift of how sharps use umpires in their daily regiment of handicapping MLB totals and you should also start to familiarize with umpire stats daily since they are readily available on the internet.

Ballpark
www.parkfactors.com and http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor are good websites out there that you can get the yearly stats for any particular ballpark if you do a search. Wiseguys know like the back of their hand the pitcher friendly and hitter friendly parks and you should too. Coors Field due to the high altitude in Colorado is always in the Top 5 of parks as far as run scored. It’s a hitter friendly park and the altitude helps out as well. This stadium has always averaged over 10 Runs per game since it’s existence. So it’s an obvious park that favors betting Over the posted total. Petco Park in San Diego is always in the Top 5 of parks as far as least amount of runs scored. This park is a pitchers heaven that seems to always average Under 8 runs per game. You need to familiarize yourself with every single park in the country and see which ones are more favorable to hitters and which parks are more favorable to pitchers

Weather
Again www.parkfactors.com gives you up to date weather in each all ball park. It’s not only football that wiseguys pay very close attention to weather because it’s just as important when handicapping a MLB total. It’s great because it shows you which direction the winds are blowing at every single park in he league up to the minute. It’s quite obvious if you have winds forecast to be blowing 25 mph out to center in a hitter friendly park like Yankee Stadium you may want to take a really good look at the Over. If you have winds blowing in from center field with two fly ball pitchers on the mound you may want to take a good look at the under. You need to be very in sync with the weather everyday when investing in the Major League Baseball betting marketplace.

Pitchers
First key stat you want to know is GB:FB which stands for Groundball to Flyball ratio. Groundball pitchers are guys like Derek Lowe who rely on pitches with downward movement like a sinker or splitter causing a lot of ground balls. Groundball pitchers and Unders go together like peanut butter and jelly. A good groundball pitcher will have a GB:FB ratio around 1:50 and up. For instance Derek Lowe GB:FB is usually hovering around 3.00. Almost 63% of balls put in play in games he pitches are ground balls.

On the other side are flyball pitchers. In a hitter friendly park Flyball pitchers and Overs go together like peanut butter and jelly. A fly ball pitcher will have a GB:FB ratio closer to 1.00. Look at Scott Baker of the Twins who has a career GB:FB of 0.76. Almost 65% of his pitches put in play are fly balls. So it’s pretty easy if you have two flyball pitchers in a hitter friendly park with winds blowing out you want to look Over the posted total. Two groundball pitchers in a hitter friendly park you want to look Under the posted total.

Another stat you want to look at is a pitchers WHIP. Walks and hits per inning pitched. The closer to 1.00 WHIP the the better as far as a pitcher goes. So that means a guy with a WHIP closer to 1.00 is definitely a guy that is more likely to stay Under the posted total because he isn’t going to give up too many hits or walks per inning. A guy with a WHIP over 1.50 is a guy who gives up quite a few walks and hits per inning pitched and is more likely help the game get Over the posted total.

Bullpens also play a very important factor. You can’t just handicap a game with starting pitching because nowadays on average starters will give you about 6 innings. You need to focus on which bullpen pitchers are available and focus on what their ERA is as a combined unit. Obviously the lower the better if you are betting an Under and the higher the better if you are betting an Over. You need to know who is available and get an idea of what the managers bullpen rotation is like so you can have an idea of who will be coming in. A bullpen that pitched a lot of innings in extra innings the night before is more prone to lead to an over the next day.

Many times a Total will be decided in the closing innings either by faulty or superior bullpen pitching. The game could be 3-2 heading into the 8th and you need it to stay under 8 runs. The scenario goes like this, shaky relievers you didn’t factor in take over on the mound and blow your Under bet as the game finishes 5-4. Or the situation can be opposite where you need those couple of extra runs but solid relief pitching keeps your game Under the posted Total in the final innings.

Hitting
As we progress into the season throw out the long term stats of all teams as far as hitting goes. When handicapping hitting for your Total bets you want to focus on the what have you done for me lately mentality.

Look at how a team has hit in the last 10 games and focus on these stats over the L/10 games: how many runs per game are they averaging, what is their .OBP (On Base Percentage), what are they batting with RISP (Runners in Scoring Position), how many guys are they leaving on base per game (LOB), what is their batting average? You can gain a lot by looking at a team that is slumping their last 10 games not scoring runs and focusing on an under. Try to look deeper into it and see why are they struggling. Was it because they played back to back series in pitcher friendly parks? Or was it because this team is leaving a lot of batters on base and just isn’t getting it done offensively right now. Make you sure you look deep into their last 5-10 Boxscores and see what is really going on. A team maybe starting to heat up at the plate and you need to do the same thing and see exactly why are they hitting so well lately. Was it because they played in hitter friendly parks lately or is this team starting to heat up at the plate and overperform market expectations?

Defense
An overlooked MLB handicapping stat. You definitely want to familiarize yourself with which teams have more errors than others. More often then not teams who lead the league in errors are more prone to go over the posted total. Also teams that lead the league in errors usually sit in the bottom of the league as far as wins go. But that could be for a totally different blog.

A few other things you want to remember is that earlier in the season you are more prone to see Unders cash. After the All-Star Break as the weather warms up and the ball starts to carry more you see more Overs cash. Around fall when the playoffs start and the weathers turns cooler again we start to see more Unders cash. Remember warm weather makes the ball carry farther.

Another thing to keep in mind that a lot of old school guys in my circle preach is look for unders in the National League. They still love how the average total in the American League and National League open up about the same daily. Their reasoning is that pitchers bat in the National League and are a lot less likely to get a hit than the DH in the American League. So it’s really like you only have 8 hitters in the line up opposed to 9 in the American League. Just something to keep an eye on.

I hope you all enjoyed this blog on MLB Totals and now you can hopefully use it to exploit your book by starting to bet some MLB Overs and Unders. MLB season is here and I’m ready to do some hefty damage.It’s a long 162 game season and that’s plenty of days for us to gain an edge in a sports where the marketplace is arguably the most beatable and especially since I love betting MLB Totals because I feel it’s truly where the money is at. Get on board with me anytime this MLB season at the site at www.wecoverspreads.com or by calling me at the office at (757) 462-9030.

I always preach to pay attention to opening numbers. If you want to win like as sharp you have to think like a sharp I always say and was taught. Remember sharps aka professional bettors bet early in the week into opening numbers to get themselves the best value possible.

Remember squares aka the general betting public usually wait to place their bets until gameday before tip off. So any early moves you see during the beginning of the week is sharp money.

Louisville vs Kentucky (-8.5, O/U 136.5)
Speaking with my Las Vegas bookie contact on the strip he told me he opened this game at Kentucky-8.5 and the total at 138.5. He said within a half hour of opening the number he was up to Kentucky-9 immediately early sharp money coming in on the favorite. He said that same night he ended up seeing other sharps buy in at 9 on Louisville and moved the line back down to Kentucky -8.5 The totals agreed a little more on the total. He saw strong sharp sentiment on the Under being bet down from the 138.5 opener to 137. He said he’s stayed quiet at 137 over the last couple of days. He told me he expects a very good handle from public bettors on this game given the fact that three #1 and #2 seeds are in the Final Four. All four teams are popular with the betting public which definitely adds some excitement in the books and he’s looking forward to a big weekend. He told me right now he’s writing about 50/50 tickets on both sides and is very happy with where his numbers are at. He said come come game day he expects the public who is inclined to bet the favorite and the over in big games to come in on Kentucky and the Over. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if the line closed at -9 and the total jumps back up a bit tomorrow.

Here on the NYC local underground betting scene my local bookie source told me his shop has not had to move the side at all off of -8.5 all week. He said he’s seen sharps take both sides in this contest so far and the money count is pretty close to even on both sides which works out great for the book. He said the total which opened at 138.5 was bet down to 136.5 with strong sharp sentiment on the Under. He said he expects the public on game day to like both sides since both teams are hot against the spread right now. He said things are comfy where they are and it would take some big money or an overwhelming amount of lopsided public money on either side to move this line off of 8.5 on game day.

Kansas vs Ohio State(-2.5, O/U 136.5)
Out on the Vegas strip my oddsmaker source told me he opened this at -2.5 and the total at 136.5 and has not moved either line since opening them. He said 2.5 seems to be a solid number right now as the ticket count is 50/50 and he is not eager to move off of 2.5. He did make note that some books on the strip opened at 3 or at some point during the week did hit 3. At 3 rumor has it sharps did buy into Kansas. He said he hasn’t seen any massive bets on the side of this game at his shops but did say that is subject to change at any point. One other thing he did note was that he does expect public money to come in on the Over on the total in this game and that may move this number up. He thinks as long as no big money comes in and the public remains 50/50 on this game he has no reason to move off of 2.5.

Here in NYC we saw this open at 2.5 and 136.5 just like Vegas. The story early in the week is exactly the same. No movement to report. He did say that of course the favorite Ohio State will bring in a handle but that he does expect some sharp money to come in on Kansas in this spot. He said the same thing about that total that if it moves any direction it’s probably moving up because of the heavy reacreational betting public money that will be tying up parlays and straight bets into the Over. He said if you like the Under you may want to wait right before tip off.

That wraps up our 2012 NCAA-BB Final 4 Smart Money Report. We’ve had a great College Basketball season here at We Cover Spreads and I look to close out the Final 4 with a bang. We’re on a 100-65-1 (61%) NCAA-BB run heading into the Final 2 games of the season. If you need some handicapping help and advice look no further as I look to knock out a few winners for us this weekend. You can hop on board by purchasing my plays right here on the site or by calling me directly at the office at (757) 462-9030.